We are just days away from the start of the NFL season, and right in the midst of fantasy football drafts all across the country.
The Denver Broncos are looking to build off a successful 10-7 season and their first playoff appearance since 2015. Bo Nix showed promise in his rookie season and will look to build on it. Denver will have a shakeup in their running back outlook with free agent addition J.K. Dobbins and rookie RJ Harvey expected to headline the production. The Broncos had four different running backs tally 76+ rushing attempts and gain 300+ yards last year. But JaVonte Williams was the leading rusher with just 513 yards on the season, and the Broncos will be looking for improved production across the board.
With Dobbins and Harvey hoping to headline an improved rushing attack, this article will break down the fantasy football outlook for each running back and which you should be prioritizing as the RB1 on Denver’s roster.
The Case for J.K. Dobbins:
J.K. Dobbins has done a lot in a short amount of time in his NFL career. At 26 years old, he was selected in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft by the Baltimore Ravens. Dobbins ran for 805 rushing yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie but then missed the entirety of the 2021 season with a torn ACL. He played eight games in the 2022 season, rushing for 520 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but then tore his Achilles in Week 1 of the 2023 season. Dobbins then separated from the Ravens following his second major injury and took a one-year prove-it deal with the Chargers last season.
The Ohio State product rushed for a career-high 905 rushing yards and nine touchdowns while adding 153 receiving yards across his 13 games played for Los Angeles. Based on DraftKings scoring, Dobbins ranked 24th in total fantasy points with 197.8 on the season. His 15.2 fantasy points per game ranked 18th among running backs and tied for 69th among all players last year.
This was a career-best season for Dobbins from both a fantasy football and NFL perspective, even with him missing four games due to an MCL sprain. Los Angeles leaned on a run-heavy approach last year but brought in Najee Harris and drafted Omarion Hampton to replace the running back production. Denver gave Dobbins a similar one-year prove-it deal. The Broncos did not have as run-heavy a system compared to the Chargers, as they ranked 11th in team rush attempts per game last season.
Dobbins was looked at as more of an unknown last year following his injury uncertainty, but he is more on the map this year. Suiting up for his first season with the Broncos, he is currently being drafted with an average ADP of 104 or 35th among running backs.
The Case for RJ Harvey:
The Denver Broncos selected RJ Harvey with the 60th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. This comes after a four-year collegiate career at the University of Central Florida, where he tallied 4,512 yards from scrimmage and 47 total touchdowns. Harvey had his best season last year, rushing for 1,577 yards and adding 25 total touchdowns from scrimmage.
Standing 5-foot-8 and 24 years old, Harvey will be capable of making an immediate impact. He rushed for over 100 yards in nine of his 12 games played last year, including a 196-yard and two-touchdown performance against Iowa. Harvey’s ability as a pass catcher is noteworthy and has already drawn some praise coming out of the Broncos’ circles. JaVonte Williams saw the fifth-most targets and caught the sixth-most passes among running backs last year, and Harvey could be asked to fill these shoes immediately.
This has caught the attention of fantasy football owners everywhere, with Harvey posting an ADP of 62 overall and 23rd among running backs. He is the third-highest running back drafted by Sean Payton in his coaching career, behind only Reggie Bush and Mark Ingram II. Both of these running backs were heavily involved in their rookie seasons and were successful under Payton. Harvey does not carry quite the same pedigree compared to the pair of Heisman Trophy winners, but the role is for the taking for him within the Broncos system.
The Verdict:
It is a bit of a surprise to see Harvey with this notable a gap between him and Dobbins from an ADP perspective. Both Broncos running backs have a chance to be fantasy football relevant and should be selected this year.
Expect Dobbins to be counted on as the primary running back, at least in the early parts of the season. Both players will get some work and should be counted on as RB2s or flex options on a fairly consistent basis. From a pure value perspective, Dobbins would be my preferred choice. He has the inside track on getting more opportunities than Harvey and should directly outperform the rookie from a statistical standpoint unless there is a late-season breakout. Getting Dobbins at roughly 40 picks deeper in the draft with this in mind is a great value pick.
But there should still be a positive outlook surrounding RJ Harvey, who could end up as a fantasy RB1 if he directly grabs control of the competition. He has more raw talent and has received plenty of praise from those around the team. The floor is lower, but the ceiling is higher for the rookie from a fantasy football perspective. His ability as a pass-catcher gives him an immediate edge for a baseline of production, and what he does with these touches will likely dictate how large the opportunity expands beyond this.
The entire Broncos organization seems to be trending in the right direction and will look to build off a strong showing last year, in which they ranked 10th in scoring as a team. Expect both running backs to play a role this season, but don’t overlook Dobbins just because of the second-round rookie’s exciting potential.
