With just over a month remaining in the MLB season, the gaps in motivation are significant. The New York Yankees are locked into a heated playoff race, continuing to stay in the AL East race while deadlocked with the Red Sox and the Mariners. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals are well out of the picture and already turning their eyes to next season.
The Yankees are a -268 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and best bet for this Nationals vs. Yankees game.
Nationals vs. Yankees prediction, preview
Cade Cavalli has sure been on a journey to get here. A first-round pick in 2020, he advanced rapidly through the Washington system to make his big-league debut in 2022. Then misfortune struck; Cavalli missed the entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery, and a “dead arm” period also cost him the entire 2024 season. Now the 27-year-old has worked his way back into the big league rotation, and it’s going well.
Through four starts, Cavalli has a 2.82 ERA, but the results aren’t the story. Making it all the way back in the first place is one thing. He’s also lighting up the radar gun with an average fastball velocity of 97.3 MPH. Cavalli has generated a promising number of swings and misses, while also missing barrels when contact is made. It’s a promising formula, but one that will be tested thoroughly by the Yankees.
Max Fried is no stranger to facing the Nationals. The 31-year-old is in the first year of an eight-year, $218 million pact, the largest deal for a left-handed pitcher in history. It’s paying off in a big way so far, as Fried owns a 3.14 ERA across 155 innings this season. He’s been as close to a replacement for Gerrit Cole as they could hope for while their ace is sidelined with injury.
It should be an exciting pitcher’s duel. The numbers for Cavalli are no mirage. He’s throwing hard, commanding his pitches, and providing decent length. It’s enough for me to believe in the under.
