This is the second outing of a three-game series in Cleveland between the Guardians and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Shane Baz is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay, while Parker Messick is slated to start for Cleveland.
Rays at Guardians prediction, preview
Shane Baz has always had explosive stuff, but control has been an issue and he’s always gotten hit hard. He did have Tommy John surgery in 2023 and only pitched 79.1 innings last season. The fastball velocity dipped to 95.7 mph while the strikeout rate cratered to 21.6%. In 138 innings this season, the fastball velocity is back up to 96.8 mph and the strikeout rate is at 24.1%. The ERA is 5.22, though, and the FIP is 4.77. The main culprit is the long ball, as he’s allowed 26 homers. The barrel rate is 10.5% and the hard-hit rate is 40.6%.
17 of the 26 home runs have come off the bat of righties. The K-BB% is only 11.3% against righties as well. 18 of the 26 home runs have been served up at home.
In 25 starts. Baz has allowed more than three earned runs 10 times, with four of those in the most recent outings. He’s gone at least six innings 11 times. This will be the first time facing Cleveland this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Guardians strike out at the 17th-highest rate while having the 25th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 28th-best in MLB.
Parker Messick is 24 years old, 6-foot, 225 pounds and throws from the left side. He was selected by the Guardians in the second round of the 2022 MLB Draft. He made his MLB debut five days ago in Arizona, going 6.2 innings with one walk, six strikeouts and one earned run on seven hits. Messick averages around 93 mph on the fastball, but his best pitch is the changeup.
Against left-handed pitching, the Rays strike out at the sixth-highest rate while having the 21st-best ISO. Their wOBA is 26th-best in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Tampa Bay has the eighth-lowest FIP, while Cleveland has the lowest since August 1.
Rays at Guardians pick, best bet
I have no faith in the Guardians’ offense, but I do think they scratch across a few runs. I love what Messick did in his debut and think he does well against a Rays offense that isn’t too scary. In addition, the Guardians bullpen has pitched well overall this month.
