Life was good for Mike Vrabel when he first arrived in Tennessee. He inherited a 9-7 team and made the playoffs in three straight seasons. Then Father Time snatched Ryan Tannehill, and Vrabel was forced to endure the Will Levis experience.
Out went Vrabel, in came Brian Callahan, and after a 3-14 season in 2024, the Titans hope that they selected their franchise quarterback in Cam Ward with the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft.
Titans target share overview
Last season, Tennessee was 19th in pass rate at 56.4%. The Titans should remain in that area for 2025 since Brian Callahan remains the head coach, Nick Holz is still the offensive coordinator and Dennard Wilson will guide the defense once again.
The defense was second in yards allowed but ended 30th in points, yet the pass rate remained muted. With this being Ward’s rookie season, I’d expect things to remain conservative.
PFF has the offensive line rated 24th heading into 2025. Significant draft capital has been utilized to improve the unit with Peter Skoronski and J.C. Latham selected in the first round over the last two drafts. Free agency has also brought in some veterans but the unit needs to gel, while more talent is likely needed to see an improvement.
The front office re-signed wide receiver Calvin Ridley for four years and $92 million and replaced the rest of the depth chart. Wide receiver Tyler Lockett was signed for one year and $4 million. Wide receiver Van Jefferson was signed for one year and $2.5 million. Wide receivers Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike were both selected in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL draft.
Last season, the Titans threw to wide receivers 55.7% of the time, 18.8% to running backs and 25.5% to tight ends.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Tennessee this season.
Wide receivers
Calvin Ridley led the team with 120 targets and a 23.7% target share. Ridley had a catchable target rate of 59.2%, which was 97th per Player Profiler. Ward completed 66% of his passes over three college seasons. He’s already shown a rapport with Ridley in the preseason, so Ridley should see an uptick in target share and will likely see a higher rate of catchable targets.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had 60 targets and an 11.9% target share while Tyler Boyd finished with 57 targets and an 11.9% target share. Jinx! Westbrook-Ikhine is now in Miami while Boyd is a free agent.
Last season, Tyler Lockett garnered 74 targets and a 13% target share with Seattle. He’s 32 years old and is far removed from the 100 receptions, 1,054 yards and 10 touchdowns during the 2020 season, but he still knows how to get open and catch the ball. The target share will likely be in the low-to-mid teens.
Van Jefferson has played for three teams over the last two seasons. He’s 29 years old, 6′ 2″, 200 pounds and runs a 4.39 40-yard dash. He’s out there to take the top off defenses. He garnered target shares of 8.7% and 7.9% over the last two seasons.
Tight ends
Chig Okonkwo led the group with 70 targets and a 13.8% target share. In 2023, Okonkwo garnered a 16.2% target share and there’s a chance he gets into the high-teens if Ward is competent. At 6’2″ and 243 pounds, Okonkwo is a physical beast that runs a 4.52 40-yard dash.
Running backs
Tony Pollard had 57 targets last season with a 12% target share. Tyjae Spears finished with 35 targets and a 9.9% target share. Spears is dealing with a high-ankle sprain. If he misses any time, Pollard would soak up all the passing-down responsibilities.
