When Peyton Manning arrived in Denver back in 2012, the team was retooled to “win now” since Manning was 36 years old. The defense was stocked with veterans and finished that season second in yards and fourth in points. Manning did his thing, completing 68.6% of his passes for 4,659 yards, 37 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The following season was epic with 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns. The Broncos made the playoffs in three straight campaigns and even made the Super Bowl once, but were unable to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
It was the season in which Manning started only nine games and threw 17 interceptions with only nine touchdowns when the Broncos became champions, as the defense was once again one of the best in the league, finishing first in yards and fourth in points.
After Gary Kubiak was replaced in 2017, the Broncos tried to maintain the defensive identity by hiring Vance Joseph and Vic Fangio, who led Denver for five straight seasons without a winning record. The organization pivoted to Nathaniel Hackett, the supposed offensive guru, but Denver realized quickly he was of Temu quality.
In 2023, Sean Payton came out of retirement to guide the Broncos. While Russell Wilson did an adequate job of quarterbacking the team, it was another losing season.
For those counting at home since Manning retired, Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, Teddy Bridgewater, Russell Wilson and Jarrett Stidham have made starts for the Broncos. Gross.
Payton hand picked Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The duo brought Denver back to the winning ways, posting a 10-7 record and a playoff appearance.
Things are looking bright, especially since the Broncos look like one of the more balanced and complete teams in the NFL.
Broncos target share overview
Last season, Denver was 18th in pass rate at 56.43%. During the first nine games, Nix averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game and had a completion percentage of 62.6. In the final eight weeks of the season, the attempts went up to 34.1 per game and the completion percentage spiked to 70.3. I think it’s safe to say that Nix got more comfortable with the NFL and Payton’s offense as the season progressed.
Payton has been relatively conservative over the last seven seasons, finishing with a pass rate ranked 20th or lower in five of those seasons. For context, a 35-year-old Russell Wilson was the quarterback his first year in Denver and the prior five seasons were with Drew Brees in his age 37 to 41 years.
When Brees was in his prime, the pass rate was top 10 in 10 of 12 seasons. The second-year collab between Payton and Brees produced the second-highest pass rate in the NFL. A huge difference between that Brees situation and Nix is that Brees had already spent five seasons in the NFL with the San Diego Chargers when he first linked up with Payton. That said, Brees entered the league at age 22 while Nix was a 24-year-old rookie.
In prior iterations of this target series piece, I’ve written about some teams that had stellar defenses which could mute the overall pass rate on offense. That’s relevant for the Broncos because after a horrid 2023 in which the unit ranked 27th in points and 29th in yards, the Denver D finished third and seventh respectively last season. In the offseason, the front office added linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga while drafting cornerback Jahdae Barron, all of whom could start and make an impact.
Let’s go back to the prime Drew Brees years again, when the pass rate was often in the top 10. Most of those seasons were tethered to a porous defense, but there were two seasons in which the unit was top 10 — 2010 and 2013. Brees attempted 658 passes in 2010 and 650 in 2013.
I think there’s a good chance the pass rate increases for Denver this season, possibly into the top 10, especially since the offensive line is rated second by PFF. Last season, Denver led the league in pass-blocking and allowed only 110 pressures.
Last season, 65.6% of the targets went to wide receivers, 21.4% to running backs and 13.1% to tight ends. The 21.4% of targets to running backs ranked fourth while the 13.1% which went to tight ends was second-lowest.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Denver this season.
Wide receivers
Courtland Sutton led the team with 135 targets and a 25.1% target rate last season. Those 135 targets were the 13th-most for wide receivers. No other Broncos wide receiver had more than 55 targets. Sutton is the alpha and should command a target share of 25% or higher.
Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. finished with 55, 52 and 52 targets last season.
Vele garnered a 13% target share. He was recently traded to the New Orleans Saints.
Franklin is 6-foot-2 and 176 pounds, runs a 4.41 40-yard dash and was selected in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He had a 10.5% target share last season with a 12.6 aDOT. Franklin has been balling out in preseason.
Mims is 5-foot-11 and 183 pounds, runs a 4.38 40-yard dash and was selected in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He was the first selection of the Sean Payton era. Mims garnered a 9.7% target share last season with a 7.4 aDOT. It was rough sledding early on for Mims, but he looked to have gotten the trust of Payton at the end of last season. So far in the offseason, the chatter has been positive, with mentions of expanding the usage beyond the screen game and short-yardage looks which Mims saw so often last year.
Pat Bryant was selected in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Bryant is 6-foot-2 and 204 pounds. While he only runs a 4.6 40-yard dash, Payton has compared him to former wideout Michael Thomas. With the trade of Vele to New Orleans, the depth chart has opened up, but I’d be surprised if he garners a significant target share.
Tight ends
Lucas Krull had 23 targets while Adam Trautman finished with 22 targets.
The unit was upgraded with the acquisition of Evan Engram, who signed a two-year, $23 million contract. In nine games with the Jacksonville Jaguars last season, Engram garnered a whopping 25.1% target share. In his eight-year career with the New York Giants and Jaguars, Engram had three seasons with 100+ targets. The target share was at least 14% in every season, with five over 20%.
I think Engram could garner a target share over 20%, which would alter the distribution pie significantly.
Running backs
Javonte Williams led the backfield with 70 targets and a 13% target share in 2024. Williams is now in Dallas.
RJ Harvey was selected in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft. He’s 5-foot-8 and 205 pounds, and he garnered a 9.3% target share in college.
J. K. Dobbins was signed for one year, $5.25 million. Dobbins is 5-foot-10, 209 pounds and garnered 38 targets in 13 games with the Los Angeles Chargers last season. The target share was 10.2%.
Both Harvey and Dobbins can fill the early-down and pass-catching roles, but the veteran Dobbins could see more of the pass-catching duties early on due to his experience and pass-blocking acumen.
Last season, Nix checked down 14.3% of the time, the third-highest rate in the NFL, so both Harvey and Dobbins should see plenty of targets.
