It didn’t take long for Jayden Daniels to make an impact in Washington, guiding the Commanders to the playoffs as a rookie.
The former Heisman Trophy winner helped his new team surge past their preseason Win Total of 6.5, going from 4-13 to 12-5 before marching all the way to the NFC Championship Game. Overachieving in year one has boosted expectations in year two, though, especially with the front office extending Terry McLaurin and trading for Deebo Samuel.
The pressure is now on Daniels — plus, second-year head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury — to prove that 2024 wasn’t a fluke.
Commanders Win Total
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Commanders’ Win Total set at 9.5 heading into 2025. There is a sharp lean toward from the under at the moment, despite 60% of the bets coming in for the over. Only 42% of the handle is on the over, compared to 58% on the under.
Washington has cracked double-digit wins just three times this century. Of those seasons, they were quarterbacked by rookies twice — Daniels and Robert Griffin III — and a Comeback Player of the Year finalist in Mark Brunell in 2005.
Things haven’t gone quite as smoothly when those signal-callers have tried to run it back. Over the last 25 years, the Commanders have averaged four wins a season when coming off campaigns with 10-plus victories.
The Commanders may have snuck into the playoffs with single-digit wins on three separate occasions, but they haven’t clinched back-to-back postseason berths since Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs first departed in 1992. Regardless, Washington has gone from +260 to -160 To Make the Playoffs year-over-year, drawing the 10th most handle in the market while tied for the 10th-best odds.
Sharing the NFC East with the Philadelphia Eagles will make it tough for the Commanders to snatch the division crown, to say nothing of the rival Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. At +225, Washington as a Division Winner is reeling in 23% of the bets and 18% of the handle.
The Commanders also boast the fourth-best odds to emerge as Conference Winner at +850 and the seventh-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +2800.
Jayden Daniels Futures Splits
Fresh off winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, Daniels is now being positioned as one of the five most-favored MVP contenders. While his odds have fallen to +750 after opening at +650, he still accounts for 5% of the handle on 7% of the bets.
Daniels placed seventh in MVP voting in 2024 after throwing for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions and rushing for 891 yards and six touchdowns. His 100.1 passer rating ranked 11th and his QBR ranked fourth in the NFL, while his four fourth-quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives were tied for second and fourth, respectively.
The 24-year-old LSU product enters 2025 with his Regular Season Passing Yards line set at 3,450.5, with the over only accounting for 80% of the handle on 91% of the bets. There is a sharp lean on Daniels to hit the over on 23.5 Regular Season Passing TDs, as 94% of the handle and 91% of the bets are going that way.
On the ground, Daniels’ Regular Season Rushing Yards and Regular Season Rushing TDs lines are set at 675.5 and 5.5, respectively. The public is almost universally taking the over for both, with 96% of the bets on the over for yards and 99% on the over for touchdowns. However, only 86% of the handle on the over for rushing yards and 84% of the handle on the over for rushing touchdowns suggests a slight sharp lean away from Daniels’ ground prowess.
Between RGIII falling off after his star-making turn in Washington over a decade ago and C.J. Stroud disappointing with the Houston Texans last season, it isn’t hard to imagine Daniels taking a step back in 2025. Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray showed that impressive sophomore seasons aren’t impossible for highly-touted quarterbacks, however, so there is a path to more success.
Other Notable Player Prop Splits
McLaurin’s hold-in is officially over, meaning his push for a sixth-straight 1,000-yard season can proceed as planned. It remains to be seen if he can crack 13 touchdowns again, considering he didn’t have more than five between 2020 and 2023, but he will likely be one of Daniels’ favorite targets once again.
Samuel joining the fray is interesting, given his disappointing final year with the San Francisco 49ers. His 670 receiving yards and 136 rushing yards in 15 games came while he was battling pneumonia and fluid in his lungs, though, so a healthy Samuel could more than make up for Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown’s outgoing production.
After milking Brian Robinson Jr. for 20 touchdowns and nearly 3,000 yards from scrimmage over the past three seasons, the Commanders traded the running back to the 49ers last week. That leaves former Pro Bowler Austin Ekeler and popular breakout candidate Jacory Croskey-Merritt in the backfield, with Daniels and Samuel chipping in beside them.
There aren’t any season-long props on the books for any Washington ball-carriers at the moment, but there are some for McLaurin and Samuel. Here is where the lines currently stand heading into 2025, as well as where the splits:
- McLaurin’s Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is set at 1,000.5. The over has seen 86% of the handle on 65% of the bets.
- McLaurin’s Regular Season Receiving TDs prop is set at 6.5. The under has seen 47% of the handle on 35% of the bets.
- Samuel’s Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is set at 700.5. The under has seen 50% of the handle on 15% of the bets.
Cornerback Trey Amos, Washington’s second-round pick from the 2025 NFL Draft, is lining up to be a fringe Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. He is drawing 1% of the handle on less than 1% bets.
Betting Trends From 2024 to Consider
Here is a quick breakdown of how the Commanders’ key players performed game-to-game last season (Note: Some of the records below include postseason play):
- Jayden Daniels
- Passing Yards: 13-7 to the over
- Pass Attempts: 12-6 to the over
- Completions: 12-6 to the over
- Rushing Yards: 12-7 to the under
- Rush Attempts: 9-8 to the under
- Austin Ekeler
- Rushing Yards: 8-6 to the under
- Receiving Yards: 9-5 to the over
- Terry McLaurin
- Receiving Yards: 11-9 to the over
- Receptions: 12-8 to the over
- Deebo Samuel (with 49ers)
- Rushing Yards: 8-4 to the under
- Receiving Yards: 8-6 to the under
- Receptions: 9-5 to the under
- Zach Ertz
- Receiving Yards: 12-8 to the over
- Receptions: 12-7 to the over
As a team, the Commanders went 7-2 against the spread at home last season, compared to their 5-6 record against the spread on the road. Including the playoffs, Washington’s games hit the over 13 out of 20 times.
Use the data you find in this series to place your NFL bets on DraftKings Sportsbook before the season begins.
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