If you told the most tapped-in baseball fans that the Miami Marlins were ahead of the Atlanta Braves on August 26th, they’d have a lot of questions. Did Miami suddenly become the best team in the league? Was there some sort of plague in the Braves clubhouse? What on earth happened??
But here we are. Both teams are below .500, much to the surprise of the Braves, and to little surprise for the Marlins. There’s still plenty left to play for, however, and both squads will be motivated.
The Braves are a -119 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and best bet for this Braves vs. Marlins game.
Braves vs. Marlins prediction, preview
We sure have an experience gap on the pitching mound in this one.
For the Marlins, Sandy Alcantara takes the mound. It’s sure been an up-and-down few years for the 29-year-old righty. In 2022, he captured the Cy Young while leading the big leagues in innings pitched and bWAR. 2023 was a down year, followed by Tommy John surgery that cost him the 2024 season. Now he’s back on the mound and struggling mightily. In 25 starts this year, Alcantara has a 6.04 ERA. A far cry from his Cy Young-winning season.
The main problem has been the loss of reliable secondary pitches. In 2022, he derived the most run value of any pitcher from his off-speed pitches, according to Baseball Savant. This year, his off-speed run value is in the 25th percentile. Hard contact is up, strikeouts are down, and it all adds up to one of the worst starting pitcher seasons of 2025.
Alcantara has spun two straight solid outings, and the hope is that he can get back on track in his last few spots. Heading into an offseason where he’ll be under his last guaranteed contract year, a great stretch run could make him an attractive trade candidate. If it’s more of the same, his future is uncertain.
From Alcantara and his 163 career starts, we come to Hurston Waldrep and his three career starts. Waldrep, 24, is Atlanta’s fourth-best prospect according to MLB Pipeline. Possessing a nasty pitch arsenal, he’s making waves early on, pitching to a 0.73 ERA so far this year.
It’s all being unlocked by the splitter, which he uses 28% of the time, more than any other pitch. With tons of vertical break and some healthy tilt, it’s been unhittable so far this year. He also throws a cutter, curveball, sinker, and slider with regularity. Being able to command all five pitches while generating swings-and-misses is going to take him a long way. The Braves brass have to be excited to get a look at him down the stretch run.
It’s tough to get a read on these teams. Both have had boom times on offense, but slot in around average or slightly below average on the year. Alcantara is struggling this year, but is coming off strong back-to-back starts. Waldrep is dealing but the sample size is small. Ultimately, I have too many doubts about the low total in this one.
