This is the second contest of a four-game series in Milwaukee between the Brewers and visiting Arizona Diamondbacks.
Brandon Pfaadt is scheduled to pitch for Arizona, while Jacob Misiorowski is slated to start for Milwaukee.
Diamondbacks at Brewers prediction, preview
Brandon Pfaadt has excellent control, issuing only 31 walks in 140 innings. The strikeout rate is only 18.5%, though, while the swinging strike rate is 9.4%. The ERA is 4.95 while the FIP is 4.35, due primarily to the .311 BABIP. The big bugaboo for Pfaadt is the hard contact he allows. The average exit velocity is 91 mph, barrel rate is 11.6% and the hard hit rate is 45.7%. He’s served up 21 home runs on the season.
Lefties have hit 12 of the 21 home runs. The K-BB% is 4.8% lower than against righties. 18 of the 21 home runs have been served up on the road. The K-BB% is 3.2% lower on the road.
In 26 starts, Pfaadt has allowed more than three earned runs nine times. He’s gone at least six innings 12 times. This will be his first time facing Milwaukee this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Brewers strike out at the 23rd-highest rate while having the 22nd-best ISO. Their wOBA is 11th-best in MLB.
Jacob Misiorowski is averaging 99 mph on the fastball! Wowzers. The swinging strike rate is 13.4% while the chase rate is 31%. He has a robust strikeout rate of 35.3%. As with most young pitchers, though, the control is terrible, as the walk rate is 12.8%. He’s only allowed four home runs in 38.2 innings because….he throws 99 mph!!! The ERA is 4.19, but the FIP is at 3.24. The strand rate is only 65.1%. The barrel rate is 6.3%, but when batters square him up, they hit it hard. The hard hit rate is 42.5%.
All four of the home runs have come off the bat of lefties. That said, the K-BB% is 26.8% against them. While the numbers aren’t as robust against righties, the FIP is only 2.3. Misiorowski has been much better at home. The K-BB% is 15.3% higher while the FIP is almost three runs lower.
In nine starts, Misiorowski has allowed more than three earned runs twice. He’s gone at least six innings twice as well. This will be his first time facing Arizona this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Diamondbacks strike out at the 18th-highest rate while having the second-best ISO. Their wOBA is best in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Arizona has the 20th-lowest FIP, while Milwaukee has the fifth-lowest since August 1.
Diamondbacks at Brewers pick, best bet
Misiorowski has a wide range of outcomes and things could fall apart in any outing due to the Ricky Vaughn-esque control. That said, the stuff is electric and he’s pitched much better at home. The Brewers bullpen has been pitching well, so I like the Milwaukee arms to stymie the Arizona offense. On the flip side, Pfaadt gives up a ton of hard contact, and I think Milwaukee puts up some runs against him. The bullpen hasn’t been great either.
