With just over a month left in the MLB season, we’re getting to the point where a lot of teams are playing meaningless baseball. The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates, virtually eliminated from playoff contention, are two of those teams.
The Cardinals technically still have a semi-realistic shot at the playoffs entering their four-game home series against the Pirates — which begins with tonight’s 7:45 p.m. ET first pitch — but they’ve been awful since the All-Star break. Pittsburgh will start Johan Oviedo, while Michael McGreevy will crest the hill for St. Louis.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals prediction, preview
Heading into the All-Star break, the Cardinals were 51-46, with a real chance of making the postseason, but since then, their pitching has imploded, posting a 4.88 ERA en route to a 13-21 record. Their offense, which has recorded the league’s worst OPS across that span, hasn’t helped out much either. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has had both the 20th-best OPS and 20th-best ERA since the All-Star break, but the Pirates are 18-16 thanks to timely performances. Pittsburgh managed to beat the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays in a three-game home series before sweeping the hapless Colorado Rockies.
Oviedo, a 27-year-old Cuban, will face his former team for the sixth time in in his MLB career. His track record is pretty good; in his previous five starts against St. Louis, he’s recorded a 3.16 ERA, walking 10 and striking out 22, though that’s only been good enough for a 1-3 win-loss record. However, Tommy John surgery and subsequent lat injury that cost him all of 2024 and most of 2025, so he’s pitched just six innings so far this season, giving up two runs in one inning on August 4 and posting a five-inning, two-hit, one-run effort on August 20. Advanced numbers have been extremely kind to the flamethrower, who’d be in the top decile in seven of 12 Statcast categories if he’d pitched enough to qualify.
In McGreevy, St. Louis will be starting one of its more promising prospects. He was elite in four appearances (three starts) as a rookie last season, finishing with a 1.96 ERA in 23.0 innings, but has been far more inconsistent this season, posting a 4.26 ERA and being demoted to the minors on four separate occasions. Still, he’s settled down nicely in his last three starts, giving up just seven runs (five earned) in 18 innings across that span, walking one and striking out 10. He’s the ultimate finesse pitcher, recording strikeouts at a third-percentile rate and walks at a 99th-percentile rate, and the Pirates have recorded an OPS 37 points higher against finesse pitchers.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-119)
Though Pittsburgh has had a downright horrific 18-44 record and a .611 OPS away from home this season and the Cardinals have been so bad on offense since the All-Star break, 7.5 runs is a pretty low bar for a matchup between two pitchers who haven’t pitched much this season and have been inconsistent when they have taken the mound.
Strong Lean: Nolan Gorman O0.5 Walks (Batter) (+130)
Unsurprisingly for a pitcher who hadn’t pitched in the majors in nearly two seasons, Oviedo’s 14.8% walk rate would be among the worst in the majors if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify, and he ranked in just the 20th percentile in that category in 2023. Gorman has drawn at least one walk in seven of his last nine games.
