On Monday, Major League Baseball has 13 games under the lights to start the final week of August off with a rush. With 26 teams taking the field, DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of great home run props to consider. After looking at the matchups, environments, odds and current form of the players on the board on Monday night, my favorite home run props are from Jacob Marsee, Andrew Vaughn, and Kerry Carpenter.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Monday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jakob Marsee to record 1+ home runs (+650)
Let’s start the week with an extreme long shot and take a look at Marsee against Spencer Strider and the Braves in Miami. Strider is still getting a lot of respect in home run props due to his name recognition and dominant stuff, but he has been very hittable this season, especially my right-handed hitters.
Marsee has made a quick impact since arriving with the Marlins and already has four homers in just 23 games. The lefty hit 14 homers in 98 games in Triple-A this season with a .246 batting average and .371 wOBA.
Over his last 11 games, Marsee is 14-for-44 (.318) with five doubles, two triples, three homers, a .430 wOBA and a 48.5% hard-hit rate.
Strider has been struggling over his last several games, giving up multiple home runs in four of his last five starts and posting a 10.38 ERA and 8.19 FIP while serving up nine homers in just 21 2/3 innings. Lefties like Marsee have hit nine of the 17 homers against him this season while posting a .366 wOBA.
Marsee against Strider seems like a huge mismatch to the casual fan, but when you dive into the numbers a little more, Marsee looks like an elite value with a much better chance at going yard than his +650 home run props indicate. He’s still an extreme longshot play, but one that brings plenty of outstanding upside.
Andrew Vaughn to record 1+ home runs (+350)
Vaughn’s turnaround since being traded from the White Sox to the Brewers this season has been remarkable. The 27-year-old righty, who was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, is hitting .304 since his promotion from the minors after the Brewers snagged him in a trade with Chicago.
Since joining the Brew Crew, Vaughn has been legendary, smashing nine long balls and adding 37 RBI in 38 games. He’s posted an impressive .278 batting average against lefties on the entire season and has a .347 wOBA and 124 wRC+ on that side of the splits.
To start this week, Vaughn and the Brewers are at Chase Field in Arizona, which is a homer-friendly environment. They also have a homer-friendly matchup against veteran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez.
E-Rod has given up 21 homers in 22 games this season, going 5-7 with a 5.40 ERA overall. Righties have 17 of those 21 homers and eight of the 10 he has allowed at home. Rodriguez has given up 17 runs, including five home runs, in his last five starts over 30 frames.
Vaughn has cooled off a little bit in the last week, but I think he’ll be back to mashing as the Brewers visit Chase Field this week:
Kerry Carpenter to record 1+ home runs (+225)
In one of the two late games on the West Coast, the Tigers are in Sacramento taking on the Athletics. J.T. Ginn will get the start for the home team, and lefty hitters like Carpenter and Riley Greene (+295) are good plays even though their odds are dramtically lower than the other options in this post.
One of the reasons for the shorter odds is the environment. Sutter Health Park has been extremely homer-friendly this year, ranking up with Coors Field in some measurements. The weather is forecast to be very warm as usual, with the wind blowing out and slightly to the left.
Carpenter has 22 homers on the year, and five of those have come in his last 20 games since August 1. He has always had much better numbers against right-handed pitchers, and those dramatic splits have continued this season. Against righties, he’s hitting .266 with 20 homers, a .276 ISO, and a .358 wOBA.
Here’s an in-depth look at his swing:
On the other side of the matchup, Ginn has been extremely hittable, especially at home. In 60 innings, he has given up 13 homers. While righties are only hitting .198 against him on the season, lefties have hit .339 with eight homers and a .446 wOBA. At Sutter Health Park, he has given up nine homers in 28 innings, and lefties hit seven of those blasts.
Like Vaughn, Carpenter has been a little down over the last week, but that just means tha this home run props come at solid odds even in such a great matchup and environment.
