There has been an uncertain outlook for Joe Mixon in the Texans’ backfield for quite some time. Houston officially announced they are not activating the 29-year-old for the start of the regular season due to his ankle injury, which makes him ineligible for at least the first four games of the year. Mixon will be moved to the reserve/non-football injury list in the short term.
This ankle injury occurred during the offseason for Mixon, after he led the team with 1,016 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. But the show goes on for the Texans with less than two weeks until Week 1. The outlook for their running back room is much less clear following this injury news. Currently, the Texans hold primary running back options of:
- Joe Mixon
- Nick Chubb
- Dameon Pierce
- Dare Ogunbowale
- Woody Marks
Unfortunately, this has the makings of a running back by committee, in which there is no clear fantasy relevance on a week-to-week basis. But there does seem to be some legitimate concern that Mixon’s injury outlook extends beyond the four-game stretch. This would increase the value beyond him on the depth chart, and let’s look at the case for these notable names.
The Pedigree Pick: Nick Chubb
Entering with the most name recognition and NFL production to his name, Nick Chubb is the only other running back with over 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns logged in a season. In 2022, he ran for 1,525 yards with 12 touchdowns for the Browns while adding 239 yards and an additional touchdown through the air. With four Pro Bowls to his name, there was a point where Chubb had a case for one of the most talented running backs in the NFL. He finished fifth among running backs and 23rd among all players in total fantasy points based on DraftKings scoring, with 303.4 total fantasy points in the 2022 season.
Unfortunately, injuries have played a role in slowing Chubb down. He has played just 10 total games across the past two seasons, with some significant lower-leg issues sustained. The Georgia product did not look sharp across the opportunities he did receive when he was on the field, and Houston is hoping he can get back to looking like the best version of himself physically. Chubb has received the majority of the first-team snaps at training camp. Expect him to get first dibs at the running back touches with Mixon sidelined, but he will need to show some reasons for belief continuing in the opening few games for these opportunities to continue.
The Continuity Picks: Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale
Dameon Pierce battled a quad issue for most of training camp, and there was some concern that his availability would be limited heading into the season. But he was on the field for the most recent preseason game and has seen his role scaled up and down within this Texans offense over the past three years. Pierce had his best season as a rookie in 2022, taking 220 carries for 929 rushing yards, 1104 yards from scrimmage, and five total touchdowns. But he has seen his role shrink from year to year, with just 40 rush attempts logged last season.
Dare Ogunbowale has also been a part of this Houston roster for the past three seasons and served in an even more minimal role. Across the three years, the 31-year-old has tallied 80 carries for 270 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Ogunbowale also added 41 receptions for 320 receiving yards and a touchdown through the air. He has the advantage of seeing some additional reps in preseason with both Mixon and Pierce sidelined.
Neither of these players particularly wows you with their talent level, but they understand the Texans’ playbook and system due to their experience with the organization. With some injury concerns and overall lack of explosiveness from Chubb, don’t rule out DeMeco Ryans electing to prioritize Pierce or Ogunbowale.
The Home Run Swing: Woody Marks
Not only was Woody Marks selected with the 116th overall pick in this year’s draft, but the Texans traded away a third-round pick in next year’s draft to move up and get him. The 5-foot-10 back spent four seasons at Mississippi State before having his breakout season at USC last year, where he rushed for 1,133 yards, nine touchdowns, and added 321 receiving yards through the air.
Marks has opened some eyes in the preseason, and his ability as a pass-catcher could prove to be especially valuable. He has been used in a variety of roles, and his quick-twitch ability stands out in contrast to the rest of the running back room.
The investment made in Marks is noteworthy, and the flashes he has shown are encouraging. He has had some injury issues as well, but the 24-year-old is elusive and has a more complete skill set than most of the options on the roster. Expect him to be given a chance to earn an expanded role and for Marks to make his case for the most complete skillset of the available options. There comes a point where talent tends to win out, and he seems to hold an advantage in this category.
The Verdict:
The unfortunate reality is that we may see each name mentioned above see some level of opportunity with the ball in the near future. It would not be shocking to see a full-scale committee while Mixon is sidelined in a way that is harmful across the board for fantasy football production. It is also worth keeping an eye on the Texans’ final roster in case they attempt to get creative at the running back position, with the level of concern for Joe Mixon’s injury seemingly growing.
But if there is one target to pick in the Houston backfield, you should consider Woody Marks. The rookie is currently holding an average ADP of 215 and can easily be taken with a late-round flyer. This should be looked at as great value, with Mixon’s issues holding a chance of lingering, and some level of running back production is necessary for the Texans. While there is a more linear path to touches for most of the other names, there is a level of big-play potential that Marks possesses that isn’t the case across the rest of the roster.
Nick Chubb is still the safer bet to lead the team in fantasy production during Mixon’s absence, but his ceiling is far shorter than it once was. The former 36th overall pick has not displayed the same level of stop-and-go ability and explosiveness that he once possessed. While one can hope that he gets this back with some game reps under his belt, the injury track record is concerning.
It is also worth noting that the offensive line will be a concern regardless of who is getting the carries in the Houston backfield. The team struggled in this area last year and has not looked much more convincing during training camp and in preseason. While none of the options jump off the page from a fantasy football perspective, winning ugly in the late rounds can make all the difference. Look for Woody Marks to be the best of a bad bunch in the Texans’ backfield and buckle up for what could end up as one of the more limited rushing units in the league.
