In 2011, Shad Khan purchased the Jacksonville Jaguars. The team produced one winning record and a lone playoff appearance over the next 10 seasons. Finally, the organization bottomed out in 2020 with a 1-15 record.
In the 2021 NFL draft, Jacksonville selected Trevor Lawrence with the number one overall pick. His golden flowing locks combined with the black handlebar stache of Khan seemed destined for greatness.
But the Jaguars were only able to muster two nine-win seasons on either side of a 3-14 record in 2022 and a 4-13 campaign last season. As a result, Khan cleaned house, bringing in James Gladstone as general manager and head coach Liam Coen in the hopes of buffing the rust from the once golden hue of Lawrence.
Jaguars target share overview
The Jaguars selected Lawrence with the number one overall pick in the draft and extended him for five years and $275 million in 2024, so the organization obviously believes in him.
Lawrence is only 25 years old, but his first four seasons in the NFL have been underwhelming. In three of the four seasons, the EPA per dropback was below zero and he has yet to throw more than 25 touchdowns in a season. 2022 was his best with 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns, eight interceptions and an EPA per dropback of 0.11.
For perspective, 11 quarterbacks had an EPA/DB of at least 0.11 last season, with three at least 0.25.
Enter Liam Coen, aka the quarterback whisperer. Coen was the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams in 2022 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024. He is credited for eliciting a career year out of Baker Mayfield last season, when he completed 71.4% of his passes, threw for 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.
While quarterback is the most important position in the NFL, football is still a team game. And new general manager, James Gladstone, was aggressive in upgrading the skill positions around Lawrence. He traded up for Travis Hunter in the draft, the best wide receiver and cornerback in college football last season. He signed wide receiver Dyami Brown in free agency and selected running back Bhayshul Tuten, who runs a 4.32 40-yard dash, in the draft.
The offensive line, though, could be a problem. The Buccaneers sport a top 10 offensive line. PFF has the Jaguars unit ranked at 26. That said, Coen emphasized quick, efficient passes last season and will likely do the same this season.
Lawrence was also good last season in limiting sacks and pressures. Per PFF, only 13.2% of dropbacks with pressure were the responsibility of Lawrence. 32 quarterbacks had a higher mark.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Jacksonville this season.
Wide receivers
Brian Thomas led the team with 133 targets and a 25.5% target share. He is the no-doubt alpha on the team and will command a target share of 25% or higher.
Three wide receivers received 40 to 50 targets last season – Parker Washington (51), Christian Kirk (47) and Gabe Davis (42).
Washington played the second-most snaps at the position last season, but he is at best the fourth wide receiver heading into 2025. Kirk is with the Houston Texans while Davis is still a free agent (8/18/25).
Last season, the Jaguars threw to wide receivers 57.9% of the time. The Buccaneers were at 59.5%.
Travis Hunter was selected with the number two pick in the 2025 NFL draft. There is still some ambiguity as to how the snaps will be divied up between offense and defense, but it looks like he will be a wide receiver first and a cornerback second. He will likely earn a target share of at least 20%.
Dyami Brown played his last four seasons with the Washington Commanders. He’s 6′ 1″, 185 pounds and runs a 4.5 40-yard dash. Last season, he garnered an 8.5% target share in Washington. Brown has been playing well all offseason and could make some splash plays from time to time, but the target share will likely be 10% or lower.
Tight ends
Evan Engram led the group with 64 targets and a 25.1% target share. He only played nine games. Engram is now in Denver.
Brenton Strange finished with 53 targets and a 10.2% target share in 17 games. This will be his third year in the league and Strange is currently atop the depth chart, but it’s unlikely he soaks up the vacated target share left by Engram. Strange is 6′ 4″. 253 pounds and runs a 4.7 40-yard dash. He was selected out of Penn State in the second round of the 2023 NFL draft. Strange will likely be in the 10% range for target share with a chance at low-teens.
Running backs
Travis Etienne Jr. had 52 targets and an 11% target share last season.
Tank Bigsby garnered only a 2.4% target share, so he likely won’t be much of a factor in the pass game.
Rookie Bhayshul Tuten had an 8.3% and 12.1% target share in his two years at Virginia Tech. He blazes with a 4.32 40-yard dash, so I’d imagine Coen will scheme up some plays to get him into space in the passing game.
This backfield is a confounding one, as we don’t know how the snaps will be divided and what roles each player will assume.
Last season, Tampa Bay threw to running backs 21.5% of the time, the fourth-highest in the NFL. That won’t necessarily translate directly to Jacksonville as the players are different, but it gives a rough idea and optimism that the 15.9% mark to running backs by the Jaguars last season could see an uptick.
