After dropping two of three to the San Diego Padres, the Los Angeles Dodgers once again find themselves tied atop the NL West, but because they hold the tiebreaker, they currently hold -185 odds of winning the division at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles begins a three-game home series with the Cincinnati Reds tonight, with the Dodgers’ Emmet Sheehan throwing the game’s first pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET. Shortly after, Hunter Greene will start for the Reds.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
Based on the teams’ recent form, this could be a pitching battle. Since the All-Star break, Los Angeles has posted the seventh-lowest ERA and Cincinnati the third-lowest, but the Reds are 18-16 and the Dodgers 16-18 because both offenses have floundered. Overall, Cincinnati has recorded the sixth-worst OPS, and while Los Angeles’ offense has been the ninth-most potent overall, it has been wildly inconsistent on a game-to-game basis. These teams have met for one three-game set across that span, and the Dodgers picked up a 2-1 series win, with Sheehan getting tacked with the loss. In that game, he entered in relief of Shohei Ohtani and allowed three unearned runs on one hit and three walks in 3.2 innings.
Sheehan has struggled as of late, allowing nine earned runs over 11.0 innings in his last two starts, although both of those came on the road. He’s been somewhat more comfortable at Dodger Stadium, posting a 3.71 ERA in four starts on friendly turf this season and a 2.97 mark in seven appearances (six starts) in his 2023 rookie campaign. Advanced stats are somewhat kind to Sheehan, as his 3.72 expected ERA is significantly better than his actual 4.17 mark, and his chase, whiff, and strikeout rates all rank in the league’s top tertile. He’s struggled to generate ground balls, thanks to his reliance on his four-seam fastball, but the Reds have hit grounders at the league’s ninth-highest clip.
Either way, it’ll be hard for Los Angeles to get much going against Greene. The Southern California native finished eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2024 and has been better this season, posting an ERA 0.12 runs better and FIP 0.41 runs lower than last season while more than doubling his strikeout-to-walk ratio. In fact, he ranks in the league’s top decile in six of the 12 Statcast categories and in the 84th percentile in whiff rate. Since returning from a groin strain that cost him more than two months, Greene has looked sharp, pitching 12.1 innings of nine-hit, three-run ball, walking none and striking out 18. Despite his propensity to give up hard hits and the Dodgers’ propensity to record them, he should have no problem shutting down a Los Angeles team that has started multiple players hitting below the Mendoza Line in eight of its last 10 games.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+119)
With such a huge advantage in the starting pitching matchup, getting Cincinnati at plus-money is tempting. The Dodgers did score eight runs last night against the Padres but required a Rushing home run to do so. The 24-year-old has slashed .187/.246/.299 in his rookie season and is unreliable for consistent offense.
Strong Lean: Hunter Greene O6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Los Angeles has ranked seventh in strikeouts this month and struck out nine times last night even in the win. Greene is coming off of a 12-strikeout outing and has fanned seven or more in eight of his 13 outings this season.
