This is the second game of a four-game series in Baltimore between the Orioles and visiting Boston Red Sox.
Lucas Giolito is scheduled to pitch for Boston, while Kyle Bradish is slated to start for Baltimore.
Red Sox at Orioles prediction, preview
Lucas Giolito is posting a 3.72 ERA through 111.1 innings. The FIP is a tad higher at 4.37, but nothing too alarming. Giolito has decreased the walks and long balls from last season, but at the expense of fewer strikeouts. The strikeout rate is 19.5%, the first time below 20% since 2018. He’s giving up hard contact, as the average exit velocity is 90.4 mph, the highest since 2016. The barrel rate is 9.8%, and the hard-hit rate is 40.4%.
TThe numbers are similar against both righties and lefties. Eleven of the sixteen home runs have been served up on the road.
In 20 starts, Giolito has allowed more than three earned runs six times. He’s gone at least six innings 12 times. He faced Baltimore way back in late May at home, going seven innings, walking two and striking out six without allowing an earned run on six hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles strike out at the fourth-highest rate while having the eighth-best ISO. Their wOBA is 16th-best in MLB.
Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery last June. Most pitchers struggle when they return to action, but Bradish has been very good in 39.1 innings. The walk rate is a smidge high at 9.2%, but that’s to be expected. It was 6.6% last season, so a big increase, but the overall level isn’t outrageous. He’s only allowed two home runs and is posting a 32.5% strikeout rate. The 2.51 FIP is lower than the 2.75 ERA. The ground ball rate is 54.9%, a career high, and the Statcast numbers are chef’s kiss. The average exit velocity is 85 mph, and the hard-hit rate is 29.3%. It’s a small sample size, so I have some skepticism, but many of the advanced numbers look nice.
Both home runs have come off the bats of lefties and at home.
In eight starts, Bradish has allowed more than two earned runs just once. He’s gone at least six innings twice. This will be the first time facing Boston this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Red Sox strike out at the fifth-highest rate while having the seventh-best ISO. Their wOBA is ninth-best in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Boston has the 15th-lowest FIP, while Baltimore has the 23rd-lowest since Aug. 1.
Red Sox at Orioles pick, best bet
I do like Bradish to continue what he’s been doing. It’s the Orioles bullpen that I fear. That said, Boston will likely win this game, but I’ll take the slight home dog.
