The long wait for college football’s return is finally over. Week 0 has arrived as the 2025 season kicks off. Sam Houston and Western Kentucky will square off as part of the Week 0 slate. This Conference USA battle holds some weight after the pair of teams finished tied for second in the conference standings last year.
Western Kentucky enters as a 10.5-point favorite with -410 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Sam Houston holds +320 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 61.5.
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston prediction, preview
Sam Houston
After going 3-9 in the 2023 season, Sam Houston took a huge step forward last year to finish 10-3 with a 6-2 record in conference play. Unfortunately, head coach K.C. Keeler left to take the head coaching job at Temple, which resets expectations to an extent. Phil Longo took over the job and had to replace every single defensive starter from last year.
Quarterback Hunter Watson returns after posting a 62.1% completion percentage, 1,811 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions last year. He also added 647 rushing yards and nine touchdowns with his legs. It is worth noting that Longo brought a pair of Wisconsin QB signings with him to Sam Houston as well. The team has reportedly named a starting quarterback but has yet to make this information public. The Week 0 depth chart lists Watson or Mabrey Mettauer as QB1, but most are expecting Watson to maintain his job. Three key members of the offensive line are back, but only four members of the defense saw more than 110 FBS snaps last season. This side of the ball is the biggest concern heading into the season.
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton is entering his seventh season as head coach of Western Kentucky and has made some impressive progress in recent years. The Hilltoppers have won at least eight games in each of the past four seasons and five of his six years in charge overall. There has been some noteworthy turnover on the roster and at the coordinator positions, but Helton has done an impressive job keeping things on track thus far. This season will mark the program’s fourth offensive coordinator in the past five years and the first new defensive coordinator in the past four. 37 players transferred out and 43 entered, leaving just two starters from last year’s team.
Quarterback Maverick McIvor transferred in from Abilene Christian after throwing for 3,847 yards and 30 touchdowns last year. Western Kentucky also brought in the former Abilene Christian offensive coordinator, which should make the transition process easier. The expectation is that this will be a pass-heavy offense with several notable transfers brought in at the wide receiver position. Plenty of new faces were brought in on the defensive side of the ball as well, but Helton has proven capable of navigating this level of turnover in the past and will look to tackle the same challenge.
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston pick, best bet
Western Kentucky got the better of this matchup last year, winning 31-14. But plenty has changed on both sides this season, and there is an aura of uncertainty surrounding each program. I have some serious questions surrounding Sam Houston’s defense after they lost every starter from last year’s unit, which ranked 22nd in the country by allowing just 20.5 points per game. Western Kentucky is built to exploit this and Maverick McIvor showed some really impressive flashes last year as a passer. Keeping his same offensive coordinator with him is a huge advantage, so I expect McIvor to be ready to pick apart the inexperienced defense he will face.
10.5 points is a significant spread, but I struggle to see the Bearkats being capable of putting up the level of scoring it will require to remain within striking distance. Western Kentucky has covered the spread in three of its last four home openers. Look for the Hilltoppers to show some exciting potential on the offensive end and keep their foot on the gas. My lean is toward the over for the game total, but I am backing Western Kentucky to cover the -10.5 spread and create a strong baseline for another successful season under Tyson Helton.
