In the last several weeks of the MLB season, the Philadelphia Phillies are kicking into overdrive to secure the NL East title. Meanwhile, the Nationals are padding their “lead” on dead last in the East.
The Phillies are a -280 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 9.5 runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and best bet for this Nationals vs. Phillies game.
Nationals vs. Phillies prediction, preview
This pitching matchup is imbalanced, to say the least.
Jake Irvin, the Nationals’ starter, has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. According to Baseball Savant, the 20 runs that Irvin has cost the Nationals relative to the average pitcher is the worst mark in baseball. He has a low strikeout rate, gives up tons of hard contact, and it’s all led to a 5.52 expected ERA. That’s going to be a significant problem against this Phillies offense that is loaded with star talent.
Most concerning, he has a .281 expected batting average due to his low whiff rates. The Phillies as a team have the second-highest batting average. If it turns into a hit parade at Citizens Bank Park, they can run Irvin out of this one in a hurry. And this offense is no stranger to putting up crooked numbers. Being the major-league leader in home runs allowed won’t help you against an offense that is finding its power.
His opposite number, Ranger Suárez, could not be more different. The left-hander has a 99th percentile hard-hit rate, with a power sinker that misses barrels and a disappearing changeup. Suárez doesn’t get himself in trouble with walks. That ability to record quick outs and limit long innings is why, on average, he pitches into the seventh inning.
It’s tough to make much of a prediction when the Phillies are a near 3/1 favorite. Even their run line at -1.5 is at -145. So I’ll take the easy route and make a play on Ranger Suárez pitching into the seventh inning.
