This is the second game of a three game series in Philadelphia between the Phillies and visiting Washington Nationals.
Mitchell Parker is scheduled to pitch for Washington, while Aaron Nola is slated to start for Philadelphia.
Nationals at Phillies prediction, preview
Mitchell Parker is a very uninspiring lefty. The ERA is 5.83, while the FIP is 4.9. He averages 92.9 mph on the fastball with a 5.5% K-BB%. The average exit velocity is 92.2 mph, the barrel rate is 9.3%, and the hard-hit rate is a whopping 51.5%. The fly ball rate is 41%. Gives up hard contact. Check. Batters get the ball in the air. Check. Not a good combo. I’m actually surprised he’s only given up 18 home runs in 129.2 innings.
Fourteen of the 18 home runs have come off the bat of righties, but the K-BB% against lefties is only 1.4%, while the FIP is slightly higher at 5.35. Parker has been a smidge better at home, but not by much.
Parker has allowed more than three earned runs in 12 of 25 starts. The last four starts have been eight, four, five, and five earned runs allowed. He’s gone at least six innings 10 times, with five of those coming in the first five starts of the season. Parker faced the Phillies in his first start of the season, going 6.1 innings, walking two, and striking out five without allowing an earned run on seven hits. That seems like a lifetime ago.
Against left-handed pitching, the Phillies have struck out at the 17th-highest rate while having the 11th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 10th-best in MLB.
Aaron Nola made nine starts to start the season before getting shut down due to a rib cage injury. He was bad then, and he was bad in his return last week. He allowed nine earned runs prior to getting shut down and gave up six earned runs in his return. In 52 innings this season, the ERA is 6.92. He has been unlucky with a .372 BABIP and 63.7% strand rate, but the FIP is still 4.87. Nola has allowed 11 home runs, and the hard-hit rate is 43.4%, the first time above 40% in his career. There are some glimmers of hope, though, as the swinging strike rate is 11.4%, while the chase rate is 35.4%.
Nine of the 11 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. Nola has been nails against righties, posting a 20% K-BB% and 2.83 FIP. He’s been better on the road, as the K-BB% is 6.3% higher.
Nola has allowed more than three earned runs in six of 10 starts. He’s faced Washington twice this season. In his first start of the season in Washington, Nola went 5.1 innings, did not issue a walk, struck out eight, and allowed five earned runs on six hits. Last week in Washington again, he lasted only 2.1 innings, walked one, struck out four, and allowed six earned runs.
The Nationals have struck out at the 27th-highest rate against right-handed pitching, while ranking 25th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 19th as well.
As for the bullpens, Washington has the 30th-lowest FIP, while Philadelphia has the 20th-lowest.
Nationals at Phillies pick, best bet
I have no faith in either starting pitcher and think both offenses can put up some crooked numbers.
