As the TOUR Championship heads into its final round, the race for the title is wide open. Patrick Cantlay and Tommy Fleetwood are locked in a tie at 16-under par, setting the stage for a thrilling finish. Just a few strokes behind, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, and Scottie Scheffler are well within striking distance, ready to make their move in what promises to be an exciting Sunday.
Below I detail my two favorite bets for Sunday’s final round.
Tommy Fleetwood to win +160
It might feel like the obvious pick, but this really feels like Tommy Fleetwood’s moment. He’s been knocking on the door for what feels like forever, and after back-to-back top-five finishes — T3 and T4 the past two weeks — the breakthrough feels imminent. He even held the 54-hole lead at TPC Southwind, only to stumble with a bogey on the 71st hole and miss the playoff with J.J. Spaun and Justin Rose.
Fleetwood’s resilience has been on full display — and once again, he’s right in the mix heading into Sunday, tied for the lead. His game has been firing on all cylinders this week, gaining strokes in both ball-striking categories and leading the entire field in Strokes Gained: Putting. If he keeps this up, that long-awaited first PGA TOUR win might finally be within reach.
Fleetwood holds the unfortunate PGA TOUR record for most top-five finishes without a win — 29 and counting. He’s long overdue, and outside of Scottie Scheffler, no one is playing better golf right now. With elite ball-striking, a hot putter, and back-to-back top-five finishes coming in, the stars may finally be aligning. Even as the betting favorite at +160, I like backing him here — this feels like the week he finally breaks through.
Rory McIlroy to finish Top 5 +1600
Since we opened with some chalk, let’s take a swing at a long shot. McIlroy sits T16 at 6-under, six shots back of a top-five finish — but he’s playing better than the leaderboard suggests. He’s currently leading the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and gaining on approach as well, a combination that usually spells a Sunday charge. If the putter heats up even a little, McIlroy has the firepower to make a serious move.
McIlroy’s putter has been his downfall this week — he’s lost 3.9 strokes on the greens through three rounds, ranking 29th in the field. But even with the flat stick holding him back, this is Rory McIlroy at East Lake we’re talking about. If there’s anyone capable of firing a Sunday 62 to backdoor a top-five finish, it’s the four-time major champ from Northern Ireland.
McIlroy has a proven track record at East Lake, with three TOUR Championship wins since 2016 and a T4 in 2023. He’s also transformed himself into one of the best putters in the world in recent seasons, which makes this week’s struggles on the green feel more like an outlier than a trend. If his putting reverts back to normal, 16/1 is quite a nice number here.