The American League Wild Card picture remains very interesting as August keeps creeping by. The Cleveland Guardians (64-63) remain four games back of the last postseason spot with the Texas Rangers (64-66) on their tail at 5.5 games back overall. These two teams continue a crucial series tonight after Cleveland won last night’s meeting, so keep an eye on the ball (and your betting cards) on Saturday.
Here’s a Rangers vs. Guardians prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday night’s game.
Rangers vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Neither one of these squads bring good form into tonight’s contest as both are just 3-7 across their last 10 games. That’s a brutal stretch for both parties, especially as the clock begins to run out on the approaching MLB Postseason. This becomes a very important stretch for these sides, and the winner of the next two contests could see their fortunes change significantly down the line based on the results of this series.
Over the last two weeks, the Rangers rank 20th in scoring with 53 runs in 13 games. The Guardians, meanwhile fall 28th with just 42 across 12 contests. While neither has hit particularly well, Texas does have the 18th-ranked average at .244 and 20th-ranked OPS at .713 — both have an edge over Cleveland, which comes in at 28th in average (.203) 29th in OPS (.613). Those are some truly paltry marks for the Guardians, especially a .270 OBP that falls second-worst over the same span. Both rank top-10 in strikeouts, so that’s a positive, and the Rangers have 16 homers to the Guardians’ 12. Neither offense looks good, but there’s a significant gap between these sides at the moment as Cleveland hits one of their worst slumps of the year.
Both sides have struggled on the mound as well with Texas falling to 23rd in ERA (5.34) over the last two weeks after leading the MLB for essentially the entire season. Cleveland’s staff ranks 14th (4.27) in that span.
Rangers vs. Guardians pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rangers as -133 Moneyline favorites at home on Saturday evening. The Guardians are listed at +109 on the Moneyline with the run total set at 8.5.
A couple of somewhat similar pitchers face off as Texas right-hander Jack Leiter (4.06 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 101 SO) dues Cleveland lefty Logan Allen (3.87 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 98 SO). The rate stats look pretty close, but Leiter does bring 88th-percentile fastball velocity at 97.1 mph on average that Allen doesn’t. Plus, the Rangers’ hurler sees fairly respectable grades in the 43rd through 48th percentiles in strikeout percentage and whiff percentage, marks Allen doesn’t come close to.
However, Leiter’s prone to giving up walks with a 12.0% BB% which grades out in the seventh percentile. He’s tallied at least three walks in six of his last eight appearances dating back to the start of July, so targeting 3+ walks for Leiter at +170 odds feels like a very easy selection for this game. However, I do feel confident the Rangers pull this one out regardless to win on the Moneyline as well.
Best bet: Jack Leiter 3+ walks allowed (+170)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
