After waiting all summer, college football soft launches with Week 0 on Saturday, August 23. While the game of the day features Iowa State and Kansas State kicking the day off in Ireland, I’m focused on the nightcap on the island. No, we don’t have to wait until some obscure hour of the night, either. Stanford will travel out to Hawaii for what’s scheduled as a 1:30pm ET local kickoff — or 7:30pm ET.
Earlier this summer, I outlined why I’m fading the Cardinal on the season-long win total. At the time the article was published, Stanford was a 2.5-point favorite in this game. Now it’s a 2.5-point underdog. As of August 21, 49% of the bets for 89% of the handle are on Hawaii to cover, and 40% of the bets for 66% of the handle are on Hawaii moneyline. Full transparency, I made an early play on Hawaii +3 a couple of months ago. I wish I’d put the play out earlier, but anything that gives us a fair price on the Rainbow Warriors on the moneyline is worth a play to me — and at -125, I still feel a fair price is available.
As I mentioned in the Stanford win total article, Hawaii opened up strong last season. While UCLA ultimately won the Week 1 matchup, the Rainbow Warriors were right there with a chance to compete for the game, and lost by a field goal as a 14-point underdog. Stanford represents a much more winnable game, and I believe Hawaii will be ready to capitalize this time around.
After finishing with five wins in consecutive seasons, getting a win off the bat will be huge for this Hawaii team to finally be bowl-eligible. It’s a veteran team, with 18 returning starters (per Phil Steele), and limited departures in the portal. The Rainbow Warriors went 5-1-1 ATS at home in 2024, and should be even further developed on both sides of the ball this season.
As much as I feel Hawaii is in good position to make strides in 2025, I feel significantly stronger that Stanford has the potential to be a train wreck. After a surprising upset at Syracuse early in the season, Stanford went on to lose its final five road games of 2024. Those losses came by an average of 21 points, and the only cover was as a 14-point dog in a rivalry game at Cal (who also might stink).
While Stanford returns some experienced starters, the bulk of the top-end talent all moved on in the portal. And the problem for Frank Reich and company is that virtually no high-end talent transferred in to replace what was lost. Stanford will be trying to learn ways to win with the mix-and-match pieces it has, which makes a Hawaii roster that has plenty of experience playing together a tough task for an opening game.
I think the move on Hawaii in the market is correct, and will back the Bows to start the season with a big win.
CFB Pick: Hawaii ML (-125) 1.5-units
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