Since July 1st, the Brewers own the National League’s best record at 34-11. The opposite is true of the Giants, who have gone 16-28 during that time. San Francisco looked poised for an upset win when these two clubs met on Friday. However, it was Milwaukee that earned with a 5-4 victory, thanks to a walk-off William Conteras homer. Which team will come out on top during tonight’s matchup? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between the Giants and Brewers.
The Brewers are favorites (-150) over the Giants, with the over/under set at seven runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Giants vs. Brewers prediction, preview
In theory, a contender vs. a mediocre club doesn’t make for appointment viewing. However, Saturday offers up a battle between two of the sport’s best pitchers. Toeing the slab for San Francisco will be staff ace Logan Webb. Through 160.2 innings of work, the All-Star has recorded a 3.19 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 175 strikeouts. During his last time out, against the Rays, Webb tossed seven scoreless, three-hit innings. Over six career outings vs. Milwaukee, the right-hander owns a 2.17 ERA. The Brewers are averaging 5.13 runs per game, third in baseball. However, Milwaukee’s OPS vs. right-handed pitching is just .737, the league’s 13th-best mark.
As good as Webb has been, navigating Milwaukee’s offense is no easy task. Seven healthy regulars in this Brewers lineup have recorded a wRC+ of 100 or greater. Despite lacking star power, there’s simply nowhere for opposing arms to escape when facing this group. Over its last ten games, MIlwaukee has scored the league’s fourth-most total runs (54).
The Brewers have an ace of their own on the bump tonight. In what’s been a stellar eight-year career, this might be Freddy Peralta’s best campaign. Over 142.2 innings, the Dominican has notched a 2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 154 strikeouts. He comes into Saturday having allowed just one run over his previous three starts (0.53 ERA). That includes starts against talented lineups such as the Braves and Cubs. The same can’t be said for the Giants. San Francisco is averaging just 4.02 runs per game, sixth-lowest in baseball.
Giants vs. Brewers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Giants vs. Brewers under 7.5 total runs (-136)
This bet is more about fading San Francisco’s offense, one of the league’s worst. However, Webb is more than capable of keeping Milwaukee’s bats at bay. Seven runs is a smidge too low for my liking, though. Instead, I’d pay a slightly higher price and go with under 7.5.
