After a 2-1 nail-biter on Friday night, the Los Angeles Dodgers (73-56) and San Diego Padres (73-56) match up once more on Saturday in a dead heat for the NL West lead. The outcome tonight — and tomorrow as well — could potentially shape the postseason field to a significant degree depending on how things fall into place over the final month or so of the campaign. With Tyler Glasnow and Nestor Cortes on the mound this evening, baseball fans are in for a fun matchup.
Here’s a Padres vs. Dodgers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook as this series continues on Saturday night.
Padres vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
The Dodgers just swept these Padres last weekend but then went into Colorado and split a series against the Rockies with two games apiece. After losing last night’s game 2-1, L.A. sits 5-5 over their last 10 and remains tied with San Diego for the division lead once again just as they were during the previous series.
Last night looked more like the version of the Dodgers from immediately after the All-Star Game as they mustered just three hits on the evening. They’ve scored 149 runs since the break with 69 runs in the last two weeks, fifth-most in the MLB. A .781 OPS ranks inside the top-10 teams though the .249 average falls in the middle of the pack at 16th. While they’re striking out at a high rate, tied for the eighth-most in recent weeks, the Dodgers have still reached base at a .349 clip which ranks fifth. Plus, they’re fifth in homers over that span with 20 (and second on the year with 191).
The Padres have to feel pretty good about last night’s result as they shook off last week’s sweep and won their fourth game in their last five. With better momentum on hand, the Padres are again 6-4 over their last 10 games and have a chance to elevate themselves out of the Wild Card if they can win tonight and hold on over the coming weeks.
San Diego ranks first in both ERA and WHIP since the ASG and now boast marks of 2.50 and 1.02 over the last two weeks, easily the best of any team. The bats have scored 158 runs since the break with 63 over the last 15 days, a mark which falls 14th. With a .774 OPS and .269 average, the Padres are inside the top-10 in both of those categories while tying for the fewest strikeouts in the last two weeks, and they’re just behind the Dodgers with a .345 OBP. Sure, they don’t hit a ton of home runs, but the stylistic differences between the Friars and their opponent are each valid — San Diego’s making small ball work.
Padres vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
The Dodgers are once again road favorites with -137 odds on the Moneyline, though the Padres come in at +113. The run total for Saturday sits at 8.5 but has shifted up a hair from eight earlier today, so it may waver in the leadup to first pitch.
San Diego sends out LHP Nestor Cortes (5.87 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 22 SO) for his sixth appearance of the season. He duels against Los Angeles RHP Tyler Glasnow (3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 72 SO). The latter has truly excelled in his 12 games this year, so it’s easy to see why the Dodgers are favored tonight.
There’s a big difference between the quality of these two pitchers tonight, though it’s tough to gather too much from such a limited sample of work from Cortes this year. However, the lefty actually has produced strikeout totals of three, six, and five through his three outings in a Padres uniform while pitching 4.2, 4.2, and 5.2 innings. He grades out with a 26.8% whiff percentage, so he’s generating swings and misses even with a 20.8% strikeout percentage that’s a bit below league average. Against a lineup that’s not afraid to let it rip and go down on strikes, something they’ve done at a high rate as of late, Cortes could actually hit another five Ks tonight. That makes it my top pick for tonight’s NL West clash.
Best bet: Nestor Cortes 5+ strikeouts (-105)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
