The Houston Texans blew past all expectations when they went 10-7 and reached the AFC Divisional Round in 2023. They proved the breakout wasn’t a fluke in 2024, posting the same exact record and going just as deep into the postseason.
That continued success came in spite of some team-wide struggles on offense, though, including some statistical regression from second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year saw his efficiency and turnover prevention tank, all while taking more sacks than anyone else in the conference.
Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik got let go as a result of the backslide, opening the door for Nick Caley to take his place. Caley, a Josh McDaniels and Sean McVay disciple, will be tasked with reforming Stroud in year three under head coach DeMeco Ryans.
Caley’s arrival could help buck a notable trend from 2024, when the Under went 12-7 between Houston’s regular season and postseason contests.
Texans Win Total
As significant as the Slowik-to-Caley transition could be, the expectations surrounding Houston are similar in 2025 to what they were in 2024. The Texans head into the regular season with a 9.5 win total on DraftKings Sportsbook, just as they did last year. Their -135 preseason odds of reaching the playoffs are identical, as well.
The over on Houston’s win total is accounting for 85% of the handle on 90% of the bets. Texans To Make The Playoffs is pulling in the ninth-most handle in that category.
There is a slight sharp lean away from Houston claiming its third AFC South title in a row, with 75% of the bets and only 67% of the handle siding with the Texans as division champions.
C.J. Stroud Futures Splits
Stroud needed just 15 games to reach 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns through the air during his rookie campaign, all while throwing just five interceptions. In 2024, he appeared in all 17 games, but wound up recording 3,727 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Stroud’s Regular Season Passing Yards line set at 3,800.5 entering 2025. While 71% of the bets are on the over, only 62% of the handle is on the same side.
There is far more widespread confidence in Stroud’s ability to clear his Regular Season Passing TDs line of 21.5, with 98% of the bets and 94% of the handle going towards the over.
Other Notable Player Prop Splits
Stroud will once again have star wideout Nico Collins to lean on this season, looking to keep their high-octane connection alive.
Collins has racked up 2,303 yards and 15 touchdowns in 27 games over the past two seasons. And at 26 years old, the former third round pick is still right in the thick of his prime.
With Tank Dell still recovering from a serious knee injury, Stefon Diggs and Robert Woods departing in free agency and John Metchie III getting traded, the Texans are set to place a heavy load on rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. New addition Christian Kirk could chip in too, now that he’s back from a broken collarbone, alongside returning veteran tight end Dalton Schultz.
The outlook for Houston’s backfield is a bit murkier, considering there isn’t a concrete timeline on Joe Mixon’s return from a “foot-ankle” injury. Bringing in former All-Pro running back Nick Chubb doesn’t exactly clear things up, either, given the 30-year-old’s injury history.
As a result of that uncertainty, there are not currently any season-long prop bets open for Texans ball-carriers. Collins and Higgins have active prop lines, though, and here is where the splits stand at the moment:
- Collins’ Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is set at 1,125.5. The over has seen 98% of the handle on 95% of the bets.
- Collins’ Regular Season Receiving TDs prop is set at 6.5. The over has seen 99% of the handle on 99% of the bets.
- Higgins’ Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is set at 650.5. The under has seen 75% of the handle on 8% of the bets.
Collins is pulling in 3% of the handle on 2% of the bets for Offensive Player of the Year, all while his odds have climbed from +2500 to +2000. Higgins’ Offensive Rookie of the Year odds are trending in the same direction, going from +7500 to +5000, although he is accounting for less than 1% of the handle and bets.
Betting Trends From 2024 to Consider
Here is a quick breakdown of how the Texans’ key players performed game-to-game last season (Note: Some of the records below include postseason play):
- C.J. Stroud
- Passing Yards: 10-8 to the under
- Pass Attempts: 10-8 to the under
- Completions: 10-8 to the under
- Rushing Yards: 10-8 to the under
- Nico Collins
- Receiving Yards: 9-4 to the over
- Receptions: 7-6 to the under
- Joe Mixon
- Rushing Yards: 9-6 to the over
- Rush Attempts: 8-7 to the under
- Receiving Yards: 8-7 to the over
- Receptions: 9-6 to the under
- Nick Chubb (with Browns)
- Receiving Yards: 6-2 to the under
- Receptions: 6-2 to the under
- Christian Kirk (with Jaguars)
- Receptions: 6-2 to the under
- Dalton Schultz
- Receiving Yards: 10-8 to the under
- Receptions: 11-7 to the under
Use the data you find in this series to place your NFL bets on DraftKings Sportsbook before the season begins.
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