Remember Shane Bieber?
It’s been a long time since most of us have seen the former AL Cy Young Award winner pitch, as Bieber has been working his way back from Tommy John surgery since April of 2024. That didn’t stop the Blue Jays from acquiring the veteran RHP at this year’s trade deadline, though, and after a couple more rehab outings in Buffalo, Bieber is ready to make his return to MLB tonight in Miami.
Can Bieber make a solid first impression with his new team? Let’s preview this interleague matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Marlins prediction, preview
So how have those rehab starts been going for Shane Bieber? Pretty well, actually. The 30-year-old RHP has started seven games across four different levels of the minors this season, resulting in a 1.86 ERA and a 12.3 K/BB ratio over 29.0 innings. It’s obviously a fool’s errand to try and parse real meaning from an accomplished veteran tearing through a bunch of unseasoned 20-year-olds, but it was certainly encouraging to see Bieber’s recent success in the upper minors. In his final start with the Bisons last Friday, Bieber tossed seven scoreless innings with four strikeouts and zero walks. Most importantly? Bieber threw 90 pitches. He appears to be fully built up heading into this evening’s action against the Marlins.
Ironically, Shane Bieber won’t be the only pitcher being re-called from Triple-A to start on Friday night, as Miami will turn to Ryan Gusto to face-off with the Blue Jays. Gusto has made 15 big league starts in 2025, 14 of those coming with the Astros prior to a mid-season trade. Gusto actually shut down Toronto in a Houston uniform back in late April, working 5.2 innings and allowing only a single earned run. However, most of Gusto’s starts have not gone that well. The 26-year-old sports a 5.38 ERA as a starter this season, with opposing LHBs generally being the main issue. Gusto has conceded an overall slash line of .306/.378/.527 to lefties, while also surrendering an eye-popping 2.08 home runs per nine within the split. That sound you hear is Addison Barger, Daulton Varsho and Nathan Lukes licking their respective chops.
The Blue Jays have been a completely different offense since the last time they saw Gusto. In fact, Toronto leads the league in both wOBA (.345) and wRC+ (122) since the beginning of May. Still, the elephant in the room for the Jays’ lineup is the health of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after the All-Star left Monday’s game in Pittsburgh with a hamstring injury. Guerrero did not appear in the final two contests of that series, though an MRI on Tuesday did come back clean. Needless to say, Toronto isn’t as scary if their Sliver Slugger first baseman is unable to play — especially the version of Vlad that’s been terrorizing pitchers since the Midsummer Classic. In his last 131 plate appearances, Guerrero Jr. is hitting .362 with nine home runs and a 210 wRC+. Pretty decent!
Blue Jays vs. Marlins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Daulton Varsho 2+ Total Bases (+120)
Gusto has struggled with LHBs this season, while 21 of Varsho’s 32 hits in 2025 have gone for extra-bases.
Strong Lean: Shane Bieber Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (+120)
Bieber is fully built up after throwing 90 pitches in Triple-A last Friday. The Marlins have just a 92 wRC+ across the past two weeks.
