The Los Angeles Dodgers (73-55) and San Diego Padres (72-56) went toe-to-toe last week in a crucial battle for NL West supremacy. The Dodgers emerged from that series with a clean sweep to retake the division lead, but the stakes are even higher in this rematch as these two teams square off once more over the weekend — this time in San Diego. With home-field advantage, can the Padres rally to surpass their rival in the standings?
Here’s a Padres vs. Dodgers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook to open the series on Friday night.
Padres vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
After sweeping the Padres last weekend, the Dodgers then went to Colorado for a four-game set with the Rockies at Coors Field. L.A. probably didn’t experience the results they hoped for as they split that series at two games apiece, though they showed a potential return to their former high-scoring ways with 11 and nine runs in their wins. With the Dodgers holding a one-game lead in the NL West, this series could shape significant portions of the postseason picture.
After putting together some big nights at the plate without much scoring to show for it coming out of the All-Star break. Los Angeles now sits 12th in runs since then with 148, but they bump up to third in scoring with 73 runs in the last two weeks. Over that span, the team’s .800 OPS ranks seventh in the MLB with a .257 batting average, 12th-best overall. They’re hitting well for power with 20 homers, tied for fifth-most, but their .358 OBP actually leads all of pro baseball. Now, that may be challenged some against a standout Padres pitching staff, especially since the Dodgers have been a bit strikeout-prone since the ASG with the sixth-most batters down on strikes.
The Padres were one of the MLB’s hottest teams coming out of the break but last weekend’s series against the Dodgers presented a momentary setback. San Diego did respond well, taking three of four games against the San Francisco Giants immediately after, so they’ve recaptured momentum heading into tonight. They’ll hope to turn it into a major comeback since they’re 4.5 games up for the second NL Wild Card spot, but the goal is to gain some ground here and win the division outright.
Their pitching staff provides a major advantage as San Diego ranks first in both ERA (3.22) and WHIP (1.09) since the ASG. The Padres’ 156 runs over that span rank ninth, and their 63 over the last 15 days fall 12th overall but 10 trips to home plate behind L.A. San Diego’s .761 OPS comes in 10th-best, and their .261 average also ranks ninth. The plate approach from this team proves fruitful with the third-fewest strikeouts since the break, but there’s a big difference between these lineups’ long-ball capabilities — the Padres have just 27 homers since the ASG and 12 over the last 15 days, so they don’t quite have the same explosion potential as the Dodgers do.
Padres vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
Still, this should be a fantastic series between two potent batting orders. DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Dodgers as -125 Moneyline favorites on Friday despite playing on the road. The Padres come in at +103 on the Moneyline with the run total set at eight.
Tonight’s matchup on the mound brings a lefty vs. righty battle of questionable quality. RHP Yu Darvish (5.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 34 SO) suits up for San Diego looking to bring down his elevated ERA. He faces Dodgers LHP Blake Snell (1.80 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 25 SO) who sees a very impressive ERA but lets plenty of runners on as he struggles with control.
Really, neither one of these pitchers have seen much action this year as each return from respective injuries. Darvish has just eight games under his belt in 2025, while Snell’s thrown only five to this point. There are some warts in the profiles of both, but it looks like Darvish sees some poor luck with a 3.48 xERA and .220 xBA. Snell almost looks like the opposite, generating lots of chases and whiffs but overperforming his 4.29 xERA and .265 xBA through an albeit-limited sample.
Unfortunately for San Diego, the Dodgers aren’t a lineup Darvish may see his luck rebound against. ‘m also not scared off by the Padres’ .245 average against lefties this season since Trade Deadline acquisitions Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano both bat nearly .270 or higher against southpaws, adding a little upside this evening. Personally, I’d rather target over eight runs in this battle between top offenses instead of rolling with a Moneyline or run line outcome.
Best bet: Over eight runs (-105)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
