Brian Ortega and Aljamain Sterling were supposed to face off in a Featherweight bout. But that changed when Ortega struggled to make the 145-pound limit. This fight is now a 153-pound catchweight bout. Both fighters are coming off losses, but they remain very talented and capable of achieving great things.
Here is my best bet for the co-main event of this week’s UFC Fight Night.
Aljamain Sterling To Win By Decision (-115)
This is a phenomenal matchup between two excellent submission artists. Sterling and Ortega both have eight eubmissons in their career. Although Sterling is 36 years old and Ortega is 34, it appears that the opposite is true. That is because Ortega is a veteran of the Featherweight division, while Sterling is entering his third fight in the division.
With these elite wrestlers, it is doubtful this contest will end via submission. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Sterling is a -310 favorite while Ortega is a +250 underdog. However, the better play is to bet on Sterling to win by decision at -115. That is because his previous two victories have come by decision, and three of his last four have been by decision.
Ortega has lost two of his last three contests by decision. Even though Ortega is skilled on the ground, Sterling averages 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes. Sterling also lands more significant strikes per minute (4.41 vs. 4.08) while being 15 percent more accurate (52% vs. 37%) on the feet. In this matchup, Sterling has all the tools to wear Ortega down throughout 15 minutes.
