The NASCAR Cup Series hits the beach one last time before summer’s end. The Daytona summer night race closes out the regular season. Drivers are desperate to win at the “World Center of Racing.” With the final playoff spot on the line, they’ll do anything at the superspeedway, where every driver has a chance.
Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series: Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona.
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Race Winner — Coke Zero Sugar 400
Riley Herbst (+10000)
There are only a few chances left to chase a big payout. Superspeedways are the parlay of NASCAR: bets to win pay big. The odds are long, but only one outcome is necessary. Multiple events don’t need to align—just one: Who wins?
That’s the simple approach, but it’s a bit too simplistic. The story is different under the hood. A win is determined by many unpredictable events during a drafting race. Essentially, betting on a driver to win is betting that they avoid big wreck No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and so on. It’s a parlay, but a unique one. Joey Logano is 10-1 to avoid all the wrecks and win. Riley Herbst is 100-1. The first three legs of the parlay—avoiding wrecks—are random and unpredictable. Logano is a favorite to win the final leg of the parlay, but his +1000 odds are a rip-off based on the actual odds of surviving the earlier legs. Herbst, on the other hand, is a steal. He’s just as likely to navigate the random pileups. He may not be the favorite in the end, but he’ll be a contender if he survives to the finish.
Justin Haley (+6500)
Once upon a time, Justin Haley won the Daytona summer race in an underfunded Spire Motorsports car. It was a fluke. The race was called due to lightning. Before the decision to end the race, the leaders had pit-cycled, and Haley inherited the lead. Lightning struck—figuratively and literally.
A lot has changed since then. Spire is now a legitimate team, and Haley is a proven pack racer. He’s won multiple races at superspeedways in the Xfinity Series while driving for Kaulig Racing.
The Cup Series hasn’t been as kind to Haley. Since his victory at Daytona, his average finish is 22nd. He hasn’t earned a top 15 finish since the 2021 Daytona summer race. His car is better, and he is better, so what gives? It’s plate racing. His bad luck is almost a good thing—he’s due for a lucky finish. That’s really what it comes down to: Which driver avoids the wrecks and rips a fast lap on lap 160?
