The Minnesota Twins made one of the biggest fire sales in MLB history at the trade deadline, recognizing that their playoff hopes were slim and that the franchise’s long-term future would be best served by a race to the bottom. It’s kind of worked; the Twins are just 7-12 so far in August.
Minnesota will begin a three-game road series with the equally-cold Chicago White Sox tonight, with first pitch slated for 7:40 p.m. ET. Zebby Matthews will take the mound for the Twins, while the White Sox will start midseason acquisition Aaron Civale.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox prediction, preview
The Twins held on to all of their starting pitchers except for Chris Paddack at the deadline while decimating their lineup and bullpen, so it’s not a surprise that the pitching — a 4.02 ERA so far in August — has been passable. The offense has been atrocious, posting a .662 OPS, the fifth-lowest mark in baseball, thanks in part to oft-injured All-Star Byron Buxton missing the first 10 days of the month with a ribcage contusion. Chicago has imploded as well, posting the league’s 11th-worst ERA in August while losing 13 of its past 16 games. Luis Robert Jr. has posted just a .502 OPS over his last 11 contests.
Just as the White Sox’s recent offense can be defined by its inconsistency, Matthews has also had lots of ups and downs on the mound. In his last five starts, he’s conceded two or fewer runs thrice but also had a 4.1-inning, five-run blowup against the Boston Red Sox on July 30. Still, the 25-year-old has shown plenty of tools: his fastball sits in the high 90s, his 29.9% strikeout rate ranks in the 90th percentile, and his 4.06 expected ERA is a full run better than his actual mark. His main issue is giving up a lot of barrels, but Chicago has recorded just one barrel in four of its last six games.
In his first nine starts with the White Sox, Civale had been pitching well, posting a 3.56 ERA across his first 48.0 innings with the franchise. However, the 30-year-old blew up on August 8 against the Cleveland Guardians, conceding nine runs and eight hits in 3.1 innings, and followed it up with a six-inning, three-run effort last Friday against the Kansas City Royals. Advanced numbers aren’t kind to him, as his negative-six pitching run value figure is identical to Matthews’ and his fastball velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate, ground ball rate, and extension all rank near the league’s bottom quartile. The struggling Minnesota lineup is a good matchup overall, but Buxton — whose barrel rate is in the 96th percentile — must be salivating.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-112)
With the exception of back-to-back 10-plus-run scoring efforts earlier this week, Chicago’s lineup hasn’t produced many fireworks as of late, scoring two or fewer runs in five of its last seven games. That’s even more true of Minnesota, which hasn’t scored 10 runs in a game since July 22 and has plated three or fewer in five of its last seven.
Strong Lean: Zebby Matthews Race to 3 Strikeouts (-105)
It’s rare to pick the road pitcher in a race to three strikeouts, given that the home pitcher always goes first in any given inning, but Matthews’ strikeout rate is elite and the White Sox have struck out 10 or more times on six separate occasions this month.
