The final week of the NFL preseason has arrived. It’s the last chance to secure roster spots, win spots on the depth chart, and tune up for the regular season. Saturday’s matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals comes with plenty of drama.
The Bengals are -2.5 favorites at home in this game on DraftKings Sportsbook. Cincinnati is a -155 favorite on the moneyline with the total set at 35.5 points. Let’s get into a preview, prediction and pick for this Colts-Bengals game.
Colts vs. Bengals preview, prediction
Indianapolis Colts
The biggest question of the preseason was the quarterback battle between Anthony Richardson and newcomer Daniel Jones. As is the case with most of these true “battles,” it’s assumed that the incumbent with a high draft pick tied to them has the leg up. But head coach Shane Steichen shocked the NFL world by picking Jones as his Week 1 starter. And he wasn’t shy about the commitment level to Jones.
Of course, there is some coach-speak going on here. Nobody would ever outright say, “Yeah, he’s the starter until I change my mind.” But it does create an added level of drama in Indy. And it’s quite the decision to make.
By all accounts, Richardson had a solid spring. Jones played fine but didn’t light things up. And he has a very poor NFL track record: across 69 career starts, he has just 24 wins. Jones has 50 career fumbles and 47 interceptions to only 85 total touchdowns. He’s a checkdown-first quarterback with a career average of 10.1 yards per completion, one of the lowest in the NFL during his tenure in New York. A quarterback who coughs it up often without making big plays doesn’t seem like the wise move.
The roster-building question makes it a more dubious decision. Richardson is only 23 and under contract for at least two years. With only 15 starts under his belt, he’s still an unknown product, despite a brutal 2024. It behooves Steichen to roll with the struggling young guy instead of a struggling older QB on a one-year contract. But after two years with a 17-17 record, he may feel as if he’s coaching for his job, and go with the “safe” move.
Neither of the signal-callers will play in the final preseason game. That leaves rookie Riley Leonard to share the snaps with Jason Bean as they duke it out for QB3. The Colts have other battles to settle, especially in the secondary, but it seems the main preseason drama has ended. Now the regular season drama can begin.
Bengals Overview
The Bengals aren’t exactly having a drama-free preseason either. The roster is mostly set; some battles are being settled at guard, RB2, and in the linebacking groups. Cincinnati mostly ran it back from last year in terms of core pieces. The drama isn’t happening on the field; it’s happening in back rooms of the front office.
Both come on the defensive line. There was a months-long contract dispute with rookie first-round pick Shemar Stewart. The former Texas A&M edge rusher took issue with some language in the deal that led to a prolonged standoff with the front office. Now he’s signed to his contract and ready to rock, but it gave the fans (and Stewart) plenty of pause. And it’s not the dispute that has ruffled the most feathers.
Trey Hendrickson is in a stalemate with the Bengals’ front office that has no end in sight. Without question, he’s been one of the league’s best pass rushers across the last four years since he left New Orleans. Only T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett have more sacks in those four seasons. At 30 years old and entering the final year of his contract, Hendrickson expects management to pony up. But there are no signs of either side budging just yet.
It casts a pall over this preseason. The Bengals are full of talent and expected to be competitive in a loaded AFC North race. You can make a great argument that they have the best QB-WR duo in Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. The defense is adding more pieces and improving. But ownership seems hell-bent on letting dollars and cents get in the way of anything good happening. No result on Saturday can cure the ill of your stars being in a contract dispute.
Colts vs. Bengals pick, best bet
This is going to be a duel of second-team quarterbacks. Leonard should get the majority of the snaps for Indianapolis, and is a middling option. Jake Browning, the projected QB2 in Cincinnati, played very well in Week 2 and should get more snaps to close out the preseason. Expect to see Bean and Desmond Ridder spelling the aforementioned QBs in this one.
The quality of the roster feels like a draw without Cincinnati’s stars playing meaningful snaps. And with both teams trotting out unspectacular but capable QB options, I’ll take the underdog juice for the Colts in an always-difficult-to-predict end of the preseason game.
