This is the second game of a four-game series in Baltimore between the Orioles and visiting Houston Astros.
Lance McCullers Jr. is scheduled to pitch for Houston while Cade Povich is slated to start for Baltimore.
Astros at Orioles prediction, preview
Lance McCullers Jr. has always had a walk problem, but it’s at ridiculous levels this season – 13.4%. The strikeout rate is a respectable 23.1% but the K-BB% is 9.7%, the first time below 10% in his career. In addition, the HR/9 of 1.83 is the first time above 1. The fastball velocity is at a career-low 91.8 mph, the barrel rate is a whopping 12.2% and the hard hit rate is 49.6%. McCullers is usually a ground ball pitcher, but the ground ball rate is a career-low 42.3%. The chase rate is only 19.5%! It’s all contributed to a 6.9 ERA and 5.87 FIP.
McCullers has had reverse splits this season, as righties have crushed him. The HR/9 is 2.61 while the K-BB% is only 6.5%. The FIP is 7.37. He has been much better on the road, as eight of the nine home runs have been served up at home.
McCullers has allowed more than three earned runs in five of 11 starts. He’s gone six innings only three times. This will be his first time facing Baltimore this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles have struck out at the fourth-highest rate while having the seventh-best ISO. Their wOBA is 17th-best in MLB.
Cade Povich has been the anti-McCullers, meaning that he’s actually been decent. The ERA is up at 4.98, but the BABIP is an elevated .341 while the strand rate is only 69.2%. As a result, the FIP is down at 3.96. The strikeout rate is a healthy 25.5% and the swinging strike rate is 10%. Unfortunately, the barrel rate is 12.5%, the average exit velocity is 91.8 mph and the hard hit rate is 48.7%.
Righties have hit eight of the 12 home runs allowed. Nine of the home runs have been served up at home. The FIP is identical at 3.96 for both lefties and righties. The K-BB% is at 23.9% against lefties and 14.7% against righties.
Povich has allowed more than three earned runs in five of 14 starts. He’s gone six innings only four times. He just faced the Astros in Houston for his last start, going five innings, walking three, striking out 10 and allowing three earned runs on five hits.
The Astros have struck out at the 19th-highest rate against left-handed pitching while ranking seventh in ISO. Their wOBA ranks sixth as well.
As for the bullpens, Houston has the 11th-lowest FIP, while Baltimore has the 25th-lowest.
Astros at Orioles pick, best bet
I have no faith in McCullers. As for Povich, he’s struggled with the long ball against righties and the Astros have been good against lefties. I like runs to be scored in this one.
