After notching three double-digit loss seasons in a row, the Houston Texans struck gold in the 2023 NFL draft with the selection of quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Texans then rattled off two 10-7 seasons and lost in the divisional round of the playoffs both seasons.
The two campaigns were vastly different for Stroud, though. The interceptions went from five to 12 while the average yards per game plummeted from 273.9 to 219.2. He also took 14 more sacks last season.
The leadership at the top remains the same from Stroud’s rookie season with DeMeco Ryans as head coach, but Nick Caley replaces Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator.
There have been some changes at the skill positions on offense, but the biggest concern is the offensive line.
Let’s dig in.
Texans target share overview
PFF has the Texans’ offensive line ranked dead-last heading into the 2025 season. Laremy Tunsil, a three-time Pro Bowler and regarded as one of the best left tackles in the game, was traded to the Washington Commanders. Now, Tunsil did lead all linemen with 17 penalties last season, so maybe it’s a case of addition by subtraction. In addition, the young offensive line in the first preseason game against the Carolina Panthers performed well and drew praise from Ryans.
“The thing that I’m seeing from the offensive line is that they’re playing together, and that’s the main thing. They’re playing together, they’re communicating well, they’re picking up the pressures and stunts really well, and they’re playing as one. They’re resetting the line of scrimmage…There’s not many mishaps on the offensive line. So, it’s just consistent play giving us a chance to get the play started, and a chance to have productive plays, because everything starts up front.”
There’s unknown with this unit, but that also means there’s some upside.
Another box of mystery is the new offensive coordinator, Nick Caley.
Caley began his coaching career in 2005 as a student assistant at a Division III program. His first foray into the NFL was with the New England Patriots in 2015 as an offensive assistant. He spent eight seasons in New England – two as an offensive assistant and six as a tight ends coach. The last two seasons were spent with the Los Angeles Rams as a tight ends coach and pass game coordinator. This will be his first time calling plays.
Caley has some Pete Carroll in him, with infectious energy. The offensive philosophy seems to be centered on motion, pre-snap adjustments, West Coast passing concepts and physical, smash-mouth run blocking.
Over the last two seasons, Houston was 12th in pass rate at 58.34% and 59.11%. I’m going to assume, since having been a part of both the Patriots and Rams coaching staffs, that Caley will try to be fairly balanced and will likely be middle-of-the-pack in pass rate again.
The defense should help as well, as the unit finished sixth in yards and 14th in points allowed last season.
Last season, wide receivers saw 62.5% of the targets, running backs 17.2% and tight ends 20.3%.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Houston this season.
Wide receivers
Nico Collins led the team with 99 targets and a 24.8% target share in only 12 games. In 2023, the target share was 22.7%. Collins should see a target share around 25% again, but his big bugaboo is health.
Tank Dell finished with 81 targets and an 18.1% target share. He suffered a leg injury last season and is likely out for most of 2025.
Stefon Diggs had 64 targets and a 23.9% target share in eight games last season. He is now a member of the New England Patriots.
Jayden Higgins, the second-round pick in the 2025 NFL draft who is 6′ 4″, 214 pounds and runs a 4.47 40-yard dash, will likely start opposite Collins. He had a 29.4% target share last season at Iowa State. He will likely be around 10% for the Texans this season.
Christian Kirk was acquired via trade in the offseason. He will be the slot receiver for Houston, which utilized 11 personnel 62.38% of the time last season, 15th-most in the NFL. The Rams were at 81.25% and Caley spent the last two seasons in Los Angeles, so there’s a chance that number spikes this season. In eight games with the Jaguars last season, Kirk garnered a 19.5% target share. His career low is 16.3% while the high is 24.5%.
Tight ends
Dalton Schultz dominated the targets at tight end with 85. The target share was 15.6%. He should finish around 15% once again.
Running backs
Joe Mixon received 52 targets and a 12.1% target share. Unfortunately, Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury and there’s been no timeline for his return.
Nick Chubb is currently second on the depth chart, but he’s not a threat to garner targets in the passing game.
The interesting player is Woody Marks, the fourth-round pick in the 2025 NFL draft who is 5′ 10, 207 pounds and runs a 4.54 40-yard dash. In 2021, Marks hauled in 83 receptions in 13 games at Mississippi State. He had a double-digit target share in three of four seasons in college. The buzz has been positive in the offseason and Woods could become a big factor if Mixon is sidelined for an extended period of time.
