The final week of NFL Preseason is upon us as the regular season creeps ever closer. Saturday brings another 10 games of gridiron action to the table with the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions kicking off at 1 p.m. EST. These are two Super Bowl hopefuls and while the starters may not play for long, some did get some action last week and could make another appearance today.
Here’s a prediction and pick for Saturday’s Lions vs. Texans matinee.
Lions vs. Texans prediction, preview
Detroit Lions
The Lions come into this outing with a 1-2 record in the NFL Preseason since they played an additional contest thanks to the Hall of Fame Game. They dropped that matchup to the Los Angeles Chargers 34-7, beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1 in a game which was called off due to a severe injury, then fell to the Miami Dolphins 24-17 last week. It’s been a lengthy schedule for them, but the staff must appreciate the extended look at their depth players to evaluate talent.
Thus far, the starters haven’t played at all for Detroit. That means it’s been Hendon Hooker and Kyle Allen under center, and the results haven’t looked too hot for the former. The 2023 third-round selection boasts a cannon of an arm but has completed just 16-of-29 passes (55.2%) for 117 scoreless yards with two interceptions. Allen’s played much better ball, going 30-for-39 for 335 yards and four touchdowns, and even with two picks he’s still likely earned backup quarterback duties. That competition seems locked up, though a couple of rookie wideouts are pushing for a role. Third-round pick Isaac TeSlaa has caught 8-of-11 targets for 102 yards and two scores, while UDFA Jackson Meeks has also shown out 11 receptions for 176 yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets.
Houston Texans
The Texans have played one fewer game and are 1-1 in their two contests. They fell to the Minnesota Vikings 20-10 to open their schedule but did beat the Carolina Panthers 20-3 last week in a much better performance. Third-year QB C.J. Stroud did suit up for that one and promptly connected on a touchdown pass to star wideout Nico Collins, so Houston won’t shy away from playing their starters in this one.
Once Stroud exits this game, Kedon Slovid and Davis Mills should see most of the snaps under center. Mills brings more experience as the incumbent backup and completed 12-of-19 (63.2%) of his passes for 111 yards and one touchdown thus far, though the rookie Slovis went 16-for-27 (59.3%) for 122 yards. That battle for second-string duties should be fun, and the Texans will also look at their halfbacks as veteran Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks battle for a snaps — particularly crucial ones with starter Joe Mixon dealing with an unknown foot injury. Watch for Houston wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, second and third-round picks, to make an impact as well. Of course, the state of a revamped offensive line proves most important for this team in the tune-up.
Lions vs. Texans pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Lions as 1.5-point favorites with -122 odds on the Moneyline. The Texans are listed at +102 to win outright with a game total of 34.5 points, the lowest of Saturday’s slate.
Preseason betting can prove difficult at times since the level of play doesn’t quite stack up to the regular season. With fringe roster players on the field for most of the matchup, there’s often sloppy play involved and these games can get messy. Still, the over looks worthwhile in this one.
All together, 11 of last week’s NFL Preseason games went over the 34.5-point mark. This particular outing does pit two quality defenses against each other, but Stroud and the Texans’ starters should play a couple of drives and give Houston a chance to add points early. With the respective coaching staffs looking to evaluate their fringe talent, we should see plenty of depth on display, including players who probably won’t make an NFL roster. The over could certainly hit, so there’s appeal here at -108 odds.
