This is the opener of a three-game series in Pittsburgh between the Pirates and visiting Colorado Rockies.
Antonio Senzatela is scheduled to pitch for Colorado while Braxton Ashcraft is slated to start for Pittsburgh.
Rockies at Pirates prediction, preview
Antonio Senzatela is the Santa Claus in the fantasy streets, providing gifts to all who have been nice with the bats. He’s allowed 19 home runs in 108 innings while posting a strikeout rate of 11.1%. The K-BB% is a laughable 3.5%. He has been unlucky with a .365 BABIP and 64.5%, so the 7 ERA doesn’t seem that bad. That is until you see that the FIP is still 5.6. Senzatela’s fastball averages 94.9 mph, but it has a run value of -15.9. And he throws the pitch 54.3% of the time.
The K-BB% is 0% against lefties, but 11 of the 19 home runs allowed have come off the bat of righties. Interestingly, Senzatela has been worse away from Coors, with a 0.4% K-BB%, 6.87 FIP and 11 of the 19 home runs being hit on the road.
Senzatela has allowed more than three earned runs in 14 of 22 starts. Two starts ago, he allowed eight earned runs in 0.2 innings against the Pirates. The following start, he shut out the Arizona Diamondbacks in five innings. Both starts were in Coors. Baseball.
Against right-handed pitching, the Pirates have struck out at the seventh-highest rate while having the 30th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 30th-best in MLB.
Braxton Ashcraft is pitching very well during his rookie season. In 41.2 innings, the ERA is 3.02 while the FIP is 2.66. He’s only allowed one home run and the ground ball rate is 50.8%. Ashcraft has spent most of the time in the bullpen, though, and has made three starts. That said, he’s only allowed two earned runs in those starts. The fastball averages 96.8 mph and he’s done a good job of limiting hard contact. The average exit velocity is 87.1 mph, barrel rate is 4% and the hard hit rate is 35.7%.
Ashcraft has been split neutral and he’s been better on the road, where the K-BB% is 20.2% and the FIP is 2.18.
Ashcraft has started in the last two outings. He went 3.1 innings, walked one, struck out five and allowed one earned run on five hits at home against the Cincinnati Reds. He followed that up with five innings, four strikeouts and one earned run on three hits in Chicago against the Cubs. Ascraft did face the Rockies in Colorado four games ago out of the bullpen. He went two innings, struck out two and allowed three earned runs on five hits.
The Rockies have struck out at the second-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 15th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 27th as well.
As for the bullpens, Colorado has the 29th-lowest FIP, while Pittsburgh has the ninth-lowest.
Rockies at Pirates pick, best bet
Senzatela may not give out runs like Oprah Winfrey, but he struggles on the road and I think the Pirates get to him. Then it’s the atrocious bullpen of Colorado. The Rockies’ offense struggles on the road and I think Ashcraft shuts them down.
