The Cincinnati Reds’ playoff hopes come down to this: a nine-game road trip featuring three series against three solid teams. Cincinnati has gotten off to a good start, winning two of three games against the Los Angeles Angels. Tonight, the Reds will begin a three-game set against the 2023 NL-winning Arizona Diamondbacks.
The first pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. Cincinnati will start trade deadline acquisition Zack Littell, while Ryne Nelson will toe the rubber for the Diamondbacks.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Midwestern pitching has been utterly dominant in August, as the Chicago Cubs, Reds, and Milwaukee Brewers rank first, second, and third, respectively, in staff ERA this month. Still, it was an unimpressive performance from the offense in last night’s defeat, which went just two-for-10 with runners in scoring position and managed only one run. This month, Cincinnati is just 10-8 despite its pitching dominance because its offense has posted the league’s eighth-lowest OPS. Arizona, meanwhile, has gone 11-8 this month despite dealing Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez at the deadline thanks to having the league’s seventh-best offense.
Offense shouldn’t be too hard to come by for the Diamondbacks today against Littell, who has given up 27 homers this season, the second-most in the league. The 29-year-old, acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays at the trade deadline, has made three starts for the Reds, pitching to a 3.07 ERA and giving up just one homer. Still, his 4.65 FIP and 4.50 expected ERA indicate that a blowup is coming at some point, and while Arizona is probably due for some regression as well — ranking seventh in home runs without Suárez seems unsustainable — Littell’s 20th-percentile average exit velocity and the hitter-friendly conditions at Chase Field could allow the Diamondbacks to stay hot.
Nelson, meanwhile, is in need of a bounce-back after posting two rough starts in a row, combining for 15 hits and nine runs across 11.2 innings, and while he walked away without the decision in both, Arizona has lost each of his last four starts. The 27-year-old has shown plenty of tools — in fact, he ranks in the 89th percentile in pitching run value, thanks to a plus-plus fastball — but he combines just a 24th-percentile whiff rate with a seventh-percentile average exit velocity, which isn’t exactly conducive to limiting damage. I’m especially worried about his ability to shut down Elly De La Cruz, who’s mashed four-seamers all season and has posted an .888 OPS from the left side of the plate.
Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+112)
Nelson and Littell are roughly even overall, but Littell has been better recently. Plus, Cincinnati’s relievers have posted a 3.68 ERA this month, and the Diamondbacks have put up a 4.02 mark.
Strong Lean: Under 4.5 Walks (+100)
Littell ranks in the 99th percentile in walk rate and Nelson in the 77th. Plus, neither of these pitchers misses many bats; Littell has a 15th-percentile whiff rate and Nelson’s is in the 24th percentile. I expect short at-bats and lots of in-play outs.
