This is the third game of a four-game series in New York between the Yankees and visiting Boston Red Sox.
Garrett Crochet is scheduled to pitch for Boston while Will Warren is slated to start for New York.
Red Sox at Yankees prediction, preview
Garrett Crochet has been chef’s kiss for the Red Sox this season. The strikeout rate is a robust 30.8%, while the walk rate is only 6.4%. The average exit velocity of 87.5 mph is a career high. The barrel rate is 7.3%, while the hard-hit rate is 37.8%. He’s allowed only 14 home runs in 159.1 innings. The swinging strike rate is 13.6%, while the chase rate is 31.7%. You can’t expect much more from a pitcher.
Eleven of the 14 home runs have come off the bat of righties. Nine of the 14 home runs have come at home. Interestingly, the numbers are slightly better against righties. So are the numbers at home and on the road. The only difference is the home runs.
Crochet has allowed more than three earned runs in four of 25 starts. He’s gone at least six innings 18 times. He’s faced the Yankees twice this season, both in mid-June. In the first meeting in New York, Crochet went six innings, walked one, struck out nine, and allowed five earned runs on six hits. At home, he went 8.1 innings, walked one, struck out seven, and allowed one earned run on four hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Yankees have struck out at the 19th-highest rate while having the best ISO. Their wOBA is the best in MLB.
Will Warren has a walk rate of 9.9%. No bueno. The strikeout rate, though, is 25.8%, and he’s allowed only 14 home runs in 127 innings. The ERA is 4.25, but the FIP is lower at 3.64. There are some concerning things with Warren. He gets hit hard and doesn’t miss bats at a high level. The average exit velocity is 91 mph, the barrel rate is 9.3%, and the hard-hit rate is 45.2%. The swinging strike rate is only 9.5%, while the chase rate is only 24%.
Lefties have hit 11 of the 14 home runs. The FIP is 5.15 against them, while the K-BB% is only 7.7%. Warren has been the devil to righties, posting a 1.99 FIP and 26.4% K-BB%. Warren has been site-neutral.
Warren has allowed more than three earned runs in six of 26 starts. He’s gone at least six innings only five times. Warren faced Boston back in early June, going 5.1 innings, walking four, striking out six, and allowing four earned runs on three hits.
The Red Sox have struck out at the fifth-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking eighth in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 10th as well.
As for the bullpens, Boston has the sixth-lowest FIP, while New York has the 21st-lowest.
Red Sox at Yankees pick, best bet
I think the Yankees score a few runs off Crochet, but I think he pitches well enough to get the quality start. On the other side, I worry about Warren, especially with Roman Anthony swinging a hot bat with the short porch in right field.
