The countdown to the regular season is on, with 17 days until the matchups hold some weight in the standings. But the preseason continues on, with four games taking place tonight. As part of the Week 3 preseason action, the Dallas Cowboys will host the Atlanta Falcons. While the off-field conversations surrounding Micah Parsons’ contractual outlook have dominated the headlines, the Cowboys must continue preparing for the season with or without the star rusher and will take another step in this direction in a matchup with the Falcons tonight.
Looking at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cowboys enter as 2.5-point favorites and -155 on the Moneyline. The Falcons hold +130 odds of getting the outright win, with the game total set at 35.5 points.
Falcons vs. Cowboys prediction, pick
Falcons Preview
The Atlanta Falcons are 0-2 in the preseason thus far, with losses to the Lions and Titans. They were held to 10 points in the first game and 20 in the second, making an average of 15.0 points per game thus far in the preseason. Neither Michael Penix Jr. nor Kirk Cousins has received a snap so far in the preseason, with Easton Stick and Emory Jones making up the quarterback production. The same is expected tonight in the final preseason matchup before the regular season opens up on September 7th. Stick has received the majority of the snaps and had some solid moments. He went 15-for-18 for 149 yards and a touchdown in the first game. The North Dakota State product followed this up with a 19-for-32 passing performance in the second preseason game, throwing for 173 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Atlanta has gone a combined 6-for-23 on third downs and is 1-1 in the red zone thus far in preseason. Raheem Morris is 5-12 straight up and 6-11 against the spread in his preseason career.
Cowboys Preview
The Dallas Cowboys also enter after dropping both of the preseason matchups. They lost 31-21 to the Rams in Week 1 and 31-13 to the Ravens in the previous preseason matchup. Dak Prescott has also been held completely out of the preseason and allowed a larger sample size of snaps from Joe Milton III and Will Grier as they compete for the backup job. Joe Milton III has showcased one of the most impressive athletic profiles and strongest arms in the entire league, even with the decision-making continuing to be a concern. The Tennessee product went 17-for-29 for 143 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception while adding 22 rushing yards in the preseason opener. Milton III followed this up by going 9-for-18 for 122 yards and an interception against the Ravens. As a team, they were out gained 399-176 in the previous game, but out gained the Rams 364-297 in the preseason opener. Dallas’ defense has been the biggest concern in the preseason, with them allowing more rushing yards than any team in the league. The Cowboys have gone a combined 6-for-24 on third downs and 2-for-6 in the red zone thus far. Brian Schottenheimer is 0-2 straight up and 0-2 against the spread thus far in his preseason career.
Best Bet
Both these teams are searching for their first preseason victory, and I like Dallas’ chances of achieving this tonight. Atlanta is shorthanded in the secondary, and this will be problematic against a strong-armed quarterback like Joe Milton III. The 25-year-old is not shy to air it out and should be expected to connect on a few big plays tonight. Atlanta tallied the second-fewest sacks last season, and the offseason additions have not proven to make much of an impact in the preseason. If Milton III has enough time in the pocket, he will be completely content sitting back and seeking out the big plays.
Expect this to be a pathway to a high-scoring battle as well. Both the Cowboys’ preseason games have gone comfortably over the 35.5 point game total thus far, with Dallas allowing 31 points in each. Atlanta is 1-1 against the 35.5 game total, but gave up 23 points in the previous game to pave the way to 43 total points being put on the board. The over also cashed in 10 of the 16 games in last week’s preseason action. Expect the defensive shortcomings to be more evident than the lack of offensive cohesion in this matchup, and for the Cowboys to produce a victory in a preseason shootout.
