The Seattle Mariners went all-in at the trade deadline, pulling off deals for Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez from the Arizona Diamondbacks. The aggression made sense: with MVP candidate Cal Raleigh, Naylor, Suárez, Randy Arozarena, and Julio Rodríguez on the roster, the offense is stacked.
However, Seattle has lost five straight games entering its home series with the Athletics and is in desperate need of a rebound starting with tonight’s 10:10 p.m. ET game. The Mariners have just the man on the mound to bounce back, ace Bryan Woo, while the Athletics will counter with highly-touted prospect Luis Morales.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Athletics at Seattle Mariners prediction, preview
To be fair, Seattle’s five losses were against some pretty tough competition, as they came against the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, the two teams atop the NL East. Two of the games were decided by two or fewer runs, so it’s not like it they were all completely uncompetitive. But five losses is five losses, and for the Mariners to not take advantage of a mediocre Houston Astros team atop the division and for the offense to post just a .718 OPS over the last month is pretty disappointing. The Athletics, long out of playoff contention, have been lacing the cover off of the ball, posting the league’s third-highest OPS this month, led by Nick Kurtz, who’s had a 1.354 OPS since the All-Star break.
Woo did suffer a defeat in his most recent start, but it was hardly his fault: he contributed six innings of six-hit, one-run ball, walking two and striking out eight. The 25-year-old has been tremendous this season, completing six or more innings in every outing, never allowing more than two walks, and pitching to a 3.02 ERA. He knows what works for him: by run value, his four-seam fastball has been baseball’s fourth-most valuable pitch this season, and he uses it nearly half the time. Despite Woo throwing most of his pitches in the zone, he has above-average chase and whiff rates. He is prone to giving up the occasional barrel, but has given up just nine homers at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.
Morales is one of the stars in a promising youth movement in West Sacramento. The 22-year-old Cuban made his MLB debut out of the bullpen at the start of the month, giving up one run in two innings of work, and has since made a pair of starts, combining for 7.2 innings and allowing one earned run on five hits. The flame-thrower has struggled with his control, giving up seven walks while striking out nine, but with a fastball that regularly sits in the high 90’s, top-quintile barrel and hard-hit rates, and a solid 3.83 ERA across two minor league levels this season, there’s reason to believe. He’s struggled to induce chases in his first three MLB appearances, but both of Seattle’s top hitters, Raleigh and Suárez, employ ultra-aggressive plate approaches.
Athletics at Seattle Mariners pick, best bet
Best Bet: Athletics +1.5 (-117)
Behind the strength of their white-hot offense, the Athletics are 9-4 in their last 13 games, and while they’ve benefited from some soft competition in that span, wins are wins. They’re good enough to hang with Woo, even though I think the Mariners star will ultimately lead his team to a win.
Strong Lean: Cal Raleigh 1+ Home Runs (+170)
Morales hasn’t yet given up a homer in his 9.2 MLB innings and only conceded 10 in 89.1 innings, but he’s struggled to keep the ball down, posting a bottom-decile ground ball rate. Big Dumper gets number 48 tonight as a heat wave runs through Seattle.
