This is the opener of a three-game series in Philadelphia between the Phillies and visiting Washington Nationals.
Cade Cavalli is scheduled to pitch for Washington, while Taijuan Walker is slated to start for Philadelphia.
Nationals at Phillies prediction, preview
Cade Cavalli had Tommy John surgery in 2023, so it’s been a while since he’s pitched. So far this season, he’s started three games and pitched a total of 16.1 innings. And they have been good innings. The ERA is 2.20 while the FIP is 2.93. The fastball is averaging 97.5 mph while the swinging strike rate is 13.1%. He’s done a good job of limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in the yard. The ground ball rate is 52.9%, average exit velocity is 86.3 mph, barrel rate is 3.9%, and the hard hit rate is 37.3%. The sample size is small, but it’s been an encouraging start.
Cavalli has had reverse splits as he’s dominated lefties and had trouble with righties. The K-BB% is only 5.6%, while the FIP is 5.41. Cavalli has been much better at home, as the K-BB% is 0% on the road, with a 6.31 FIP. Once again, small sample size.
Cavalli pitched 4.1 innings his first start. He went five innings in the next one then came off a gem at home against the Phillies, going seven innings and striking out five without issuing a walk or allowing a hit.
Against right-handed pitching, the Phillies have struck out at the 25th-highest rate, while having the 12th-best ISO. Their wOBA is sixth-best in MLB.
Taijuan Walker was atrocious last season, posting a 6.94 FIP with a 9.7% walk rate and allowing 24 home runs in 83.2 innings. He’s been much better this season. The walk rate is down to 7.1%, and the HR/9 has gone from 2.58 to 1.37. The 3.34 ERA is fueled by an 80.1% strand rate and .270 BABIP, though, the FIP is higher at 4.73. Still, better than last season. After allowing a 13.4% barrel rate, and 46.3% hard hit rate last season, those numbers are 6.4% and 38.6% this season. The ground ball rate is back up at 46.4%, after being 37.8% last season.
Walker has essentially been side and split neutral, with a slight lean towards better production against righties and at home.
Walker has allowed more than three earned runs in only two of 15 starts. He’s faced Washington twice. In his second start of the season, Walker went 5.2 innings, walked three, struck out two, and allowed one earned run on four hits at home. In his most recent start in Washington, Walker went 6.2 innings, walked two, struck out three, and allowed two earned runs on six hits.
The Nationals have struck out at the 27th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 24th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 21st, as well.
As for the bullpens, Washington has the 30th-lowest FIP, while Philadelphia has the 21st-lowest.
Nationals at Phillies pick, best bet
Both pitchers faced each other in their last starts and both pitched well. I’m liking both offenses in this one.
