The Rays are falling further behind in the AL East race following two straight losses to the Yankees. Meanwhile, the Cardinals won two of three against the Marlins.
The two squads will now face off in an inter-league matchup.
St. Louis is a -117 favorite, while Tampa Bay is -103 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Thursday’s Cardinals vs. Rays matchup.
Cardinals vs. Rays prediction
While both teams are technically in the Wild Card race, the Rays have many more hurdles to overcome. They’re 6.5 games back, but there are four teams ahead of them also looking to grab that third spot. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are five games back with just one team in front.
Less has to go right for the Cardinals, and tonight’s series opener against the Rays is potentially a good start to that. Tampa Bay has struggled this season and enters this set on a three-game losing streak. It will start Joe Boyle, who has thrown just 32.2 innings this season.
Boyle split time between the bullpen and rotation this season, but even his starts have been mostly just “openers.” He’s had two great starts of 5.0 innings, but the other three starts ended in less than four innings with at least four earned runs.
The Cardinals are a middle-of-the-pack offensive team, averaging 4.36 runs per game this season. Perhaps they can take advantage of a starter that’s struggled in recent outings.
St. Louis is starting Sonny Gray, the team’s ace. He has a 4.30 ERA, which is not desirable, and it’s worse on the road. Still, Gray has a track record of great performances not just in his career but this year specifically.
The Rays are just slightly better offensively than the Cardinals, averaging 4.43 runs per game this season. If Gray can slow them down, it’ll give the Cardinals a good shot at winning.
Cardinals vs. Rays pick, best bet
Although Gray has shown he’s capable of shutting down opponents, I don’t have enough confidence in him against the Rays. I also don’t believe in Boyle tonight.
The over is the way to go here.