This is the finale of a four-game series in San Diego between the Padres and visiting San Francisco Giants.
Justin Verlander is scheduled to pitch for San Francisco while Dylan Cease is slated to start for San Diego.
Giants at Padres prediction, preview
Justin Verlander is 42 years old and still averaging 94.2 mph on the fastball. The swinging strike percent is 11 and the hard hit rate is 37.7%. The strikeout rate is solid at 20.3%. Verlander has allowed 12 home runs in 106.1 innings and the BB/9 of 3.05 is the first time over 3 since 2017. Verlander is sporting a 4.23 ERA but the BABIP is an elevated .322 so the FIP is slightly lower at 3.95.
Verlander has had slightly more trouble against lefties, as the walk rate is 4.5% higher than against righties. The FIP is also slightly higher. The K-BB% is 11.8% higher at home but, interestingly, eight of the 12 home runs allowed have come at home.
Verlander has allowed more than three earned runs in five of 21 starts. One of those was two starts ago when the Nationals tagged him for five earned runs in five innings. He did bounce back with an impressive performance against the Rays, though, striking out eight while allowing only two hits in seven innings. This will be his first time facing San Diego this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Padres have struck out at the 28th-highest rate while having the 28th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 18th-best in MLB.
Dylan Cease is averaging 97.1 mph on the fastball and is sporting a 30% strikeout rate. The walk rate is at 9.8%, though, and the ERA is 4.61. There’s been some bad luck with a .313 BABIP and a strand rate of 67.2%. As a result, the FIP is down at 3.54. The swinging strike rate is a career-high 15.5% while the chase rate is 31.4%.
Cease has pretty much been split and site neutral.
Cease has allowed more than three earned runs in five of 25 starts. He faced the Giants in San Francisco back in early June, going five innings, walking three, striking out seven and allowing three earned runs on five hits.
The Giants have struck out at the 14th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 24th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 22nd as well.
As for the bullpens, San Francisco has the fourth-lowest FIP, while San Diego has the lowest.
Giants at Padres pick, best bet
I’m expecting a good ole fashion NL West pitching duel, or an offensively challenged NL West game. Whatever floats your boat.
