When there’s a sufficiently large slate, MLB Thursdays can be pretty great. Because some teams are ending midweek series and others are starting weekend series, there’s baseball on all day. The first game of the day is more than halfway complete, and three more won’t even start until after 7 p.m. ET.
The trio of late games features some pretty awesome matchups: the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will start a four-game series, the Baltimore Orioles begin an eight-game home-stand with a contest against the Houston Astros, and the St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays will play a rare three-game, four-day series. Here are my two favorite starting pitcher prop bets for tonight’s three-game slate at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Lucas Giolito vs. Luis Gil – Most Strikeouts Thrown Moneyline: Lucas Giolito (-125)
Baseball’s greatest rivalry is more compelling this season than most: though both teams have been very inconsistent all season, the Yankees lead the Red Sox by one and a half games, and both teams are in good position to claim one of the American League’s three Wild Card spots. This pitching matchup is pretty fascinating too: Giolito got off to a miserable start this season before settling down with a 2.34 ERA in his last 12 starts, and Gil — the reigning Rookie of the Year — will make just his fourth start of 2025 after suffering a lat strain in Spring Training.
In his limited action, Gil’s strikeout rate has been 3.4 percentage points higher than Giolito’s, but over the last 12 games, Giolito’s strikeout rate has gone up slightly, to 20.4%. He’ll also likely stay in the game longer than Gil: in that span, he’s averaged 93.8 pitches per appearance, 10.1 more than Gil has. Both teams are equally rested: New York last had an off-day on Monday but got a combined 12.2 innings of work from Carlos Rodón and Cam Schlittler in Tampa Bay, and while Walker Buehler offered just four innings on Tuesday, Boston didn’t play yesterday. The Yankees have also struck out 15 more times than the Red Sox have since the All-Star break.
Sonny Gray to Record a Win (+170)
Gray has had a roller-coaster season, but overall, he’s settled down after a miserable first three second-half starts in which he gave up 17 earned runs in 13.1 innings of work. He’s coming off of a loss, allowing nine hits and six earned runs in five innings against New York last Saturday, but overall, his 3.24 FIP and 3.81 expected ERA indicate that Gray’s been a much better pitcher than the raw numbers have suggested this season. He should have no problem mowing down a Tampa Bay offense that has posted the league’s lowest OPS since the All-Star break, especially with Junior Caminero mired in a two-for-19 slump.
Although the Cardinals haven’t been that much better offensively — they have the third-worst OPS since the All-Star break — Gray should still be in line to pick up a win, given how bad Rays starter Joe Boyle has been. He’s made five starts for Tampa Bay since being acquired from the Athletics for Jeffrey Springs and JP Sears in the offseason, and three of them have been bad: he’s recorded a 9.22 ERA and 8.38 FIP since re-joining the rotation on July 29.
