Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
As is often the case on a Thursday, we’ve got a heavy influence of afternoon baseball on today’s slate, meaning the home runs will start flying out sooner than usual. With that in mind, let’s not waste any more time. Here’s who I think is leaving the park.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Freddie Freeman 1+ Home Run (+290)
For as great as Freddie Freeman is, let’s not pretend that the viability of this home run prop isn’t primarily about the presence of Chase Dollander and Coors Field. The former ninth-overall pick has struggled to a severe degree when having to pitch in the altitude this season, with Dollander in possession of a ghastly 9.16 ERA in Colorado. As you might expect, the long ball has factored in quite a bit in these struggles, with Dollander surrendering 2.17 opponent home runs per nine within the split. He’s also giving up 2.53 home runs per nine when specifically facing an LHB at Coors. Woof. For his part, Freeman still ranks in the 84th percentile in expected wOBA (.360) and the 80th percentile for average exit velocity (91.4). It’s not all about Colorado — just mostly.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Home Run (+450)
After a truncated two-game set at George M. Steinbrenner Field where the Yankees mashed a combined 14 home runs, New York will return home to take on Lucas Giolito and the Red Sox. Forgive me for maybe stating the obvious, but I don’t think the Yankees are quite done hitting long balls. Chisholm Jr. is the man I want to isolate, though. Not only does Chisholm make for a good bet due to his home run odds being just the fifth-longest on New York’s roster on Thursday, but generally speaking, the infielder has done his most damage against right-handed pitching at Yankee Stadium. To wit, Chisholm sports a massive .354 ISO in the 148 plate appearances he’s taken in those exact circumstances so far in 2025. As for Giolito’s part in all this? The veteran is conceding 1.83 opponent home runs per nine since the All-Star break. Feels like the stars are aligning here, no?
Alec Burleson 1+ Home Run (+425)
As I just said, the Rays are directly on the heels of giving up 14 home runs over the course of action on Tuesday and Wednesday. While all of that ineptitude can’t be blamed on the team’s home in a Single-A ball park, George M. Steinbrenner Field is certainly playing a large role. In fact, according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors, Tampa’s temporary home stadium has been the fourth-easiest place to go deep in 2025. Now the Cardinals will come into town to face Joe Boyle, who has surrendered 1.65 opponent home runs per nine and a 12.9% opponent barrel rate in his nine MLB appearances this season. You can see where I’m going with all this, right? While I’d also take a real look at Ivan Herrera (+475) and Nolan Gorman (+425), Burleson feels like the correct St. Louis asset to back in this market. Against RHPs, Burleson possesses a 126 wRC+ and his 12 home runs within the split are tied for the most on the Cardinals.
