The Astros, 69-58, are clinging to a 1.5-game lead over the Mariners in the AL West. However, Houston has lost six of its previous eight games, and is trending towards a disappointing finish. The team will hope to turn things around during their four-game series in Baltimore. Despite their lackluster record (59-67), the Orioles might be baseball’s most talented last place club. Can the Birds earn an upset win at Camden Yards? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between the Astros and the Orioles.
The Orioles are favorites (-121) over the Astros, with the over/under set at nine runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Astros vs. Orioles prediction, preview
Neither of tonight’s starters are household names. Still, there’s a reason to like both heading into Thursday’s matchup. Let’s start with Jason Alexander, making his seventh start of the season for Houston. Over 43.2 innings, the right-hander has notched a 4.74 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 35 strikeouts. On paper, those numbers aren’t very impressive. However, the 32-year-old has turned things around recently. Over Alexander’s last 18.0 innings of work, he’s allowed a total of two runs (1.00 ERA). That includes a six-inning, two-run performance last week vs. the Orioles.
Baltimore will hope to avoid another dismal showing at the plate tonight. The O’s were one of July’s busiest sellers, shopping off several of their best hitters. Unsurprisingly, they’ve scored the fourth-fewest runs in baseball since August 1st (65). Just two regulars in this lineup have a wRC+ over 100: Gunnar Henderson (128) and Jordan Westburg (123). In defense of the Orioles, they did score 23 total runs during their three-game series in Houston last weekend.
For the home team, it’ll be Brandon Young on the bump. Much like Alexander, the righty’s season-long numbers are unimpressive (5.68 ERA, 1.49 WHIP). However, he’s fresh off of his best start of the season, an eight-inning, one-hit masterpiece last Friday vs. the Astros. Will lightning strike twice for the 27-year-old hurler? It’s not impossible, especially considering how bad Houston has looked on offense. This month, the ‘Stros have scored just 59 total runs, the league’s third-lowest mark. The continued absences of Yordan Alvarez (hand) and Isaac Paredes (hamstring) certainly haven’t helped.
Astros vs. Orioles pick, best bet
Best Bet: Astros vs. Orioles under nine total runs (-123)
Neither of these struggling lineups deserves much support from bettors on Thursday. Instead, a savvier wager might be on the under. Both Alexander and Young have shown they can dominate in this matchup. Playing at pitcher-friendly Camden Yards doesn’t hurt, either. Expect a low-scoring duel tonight in Baltimore.
