The Cincinnati Bengals bottomed out in 2019, posting a 2-14 record and “earning” the right to select quarterback Joe Burrow with the number one pick in the 2020 NFL draft. Burrow flashed immediately, posting five games with over 300 yards passing and throwing at least three touchdowns in two contests. Unfortunately, his rookie season was cut short after 10 games due to a knee injury.
Burrow bounced back, leading the Bengals to the Super Bowl the following season and a 12-4 record with another playoff appearance in 2022. The last two seasons, though, have been meh, with records of 9-8 in both campaigns. A wrist injury limited Burrow to another 10-game season in 2023, but the common theme was the porous defense.
Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo was replaced by Al Golden, but the Bengals are all about Burrow, and Cincinnati has a smorgasbord of weapons.
The fantasy goodies should rain down from the heavens wherever and whenever the Bengals play.
Bengals target share overview
Let’s start with the defense because we know the Bengals offense is going to be one of the best in the NFL.
Last season, the Bengals’ defense ranked 25th in both points and yards. The unit gave up the third-most first downs (both passing and rushing), fourth-most passing touchdowns and fourth-most passing plays of 40+ yards. The 36 sacks were the sixth-fewest. There was a positive, though, as the 25 turnovers were the seventh-most.
During the Super Bowl run in 2021, the Bengals’ defense ranked 17th in points and 18th in yards. In the following season’s playoff run, the rankings were sixth and 16th, respectively. With an elite offense led by Burrow, the defense just has to be average.
By replacing Lou Anarumo with Al Golden, the Bengals front office is hoping that a new voice and leadership can improve the defense just a teeny bit.
Golden began his coaching career back in 1993. He only has six years of experience in the NFL, though, as the tight ends and linebackers coach for both the Detroit Lions and Cincinnati Bengals. He was the defensive coordinator for Notre Dame in the last three seasons, so this will be the first time calling defensive plays at the NFL level.
Cincinnati tried to address the defense in the NFL draft by selecting defensive end Shemar Stewart in the first round and linebacker Demetrius Knight Jr. in the second round, but star lineman Trey Hendrickson is still in a contract dispute.
It’s going to take time for Golden to implement his system and the pieces that he has to work with aren’t the best, so it’s hard to imagine an improvement from the defensive perspective, which bodes well for the offense because the pedal will likely be nailed to the metal.
While there are weapons galore at the skill positions, the offensive line is one of the worst. PFF has the unit ranked 31st heading into the season. But Burrow is so good that he double-negatives into a positive. Per Sumer Sports, Burrow had 2.56 seconds to throw on average, good for 42nd in the NFL last season. Despite that, he was right at league average for pressure rate at 21.5%, per Pro Football Reference.
The Bengals’ offense was second in pass rate at 64.81% last season. In 2023, they also finished ranked second. Burrow led the league with 652 pass attempts last season, and there’s a good chance he’s among the league leaders once again this season.
Per Fantasy Pros, the target distribution was 59.2% to wide receivers, 16.1% to running backs and 24.7% to tight ends.
Now, let’s take a look at how the targets should be distributed in Cincinnati this season.
Wide receivers
Ja’Marr Chase is the alpha of the receivers in Cincinnati. It can be argued that he is THE alpha in the entire NFL. The 175 targets last season were the most in the NFL. Only Malik Nabers was close with 170. The target share was 27.9% and he should be in that range once again this season.
Tee Higgins was Robin with 109 targets and a 24.9% target share last season. Since 2021, which is when Chase and Higgins first joined forces, the target share for Higgins has been 23.9%, 18.6%, 17.9% and 24.9%, so the range of outcomes is somewhat wide.
Andrei Iosivas finished with 61 targets and a 9.7% target share. Iosivas runs a 4.43 40-yard dash and had an aDOT of 11.3 last season. Iosivas is entering his third season and seems entrenched as the third wide receiver.
Jermaine Burton only had 14 targets last season, but he’s a dark horse to make an impact. The third-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft has potential with a 4.45 40-yard dash and elite 92nd percentile burst score, but he’s currently dealing with an injury.
Tight ends
Mike Gesicki led the group with 83 targets and garnered a 13.2% target share. Last season was his first in Cincinnati and a repeat of the targets and target share seems likely.
Running backs
Chase Brown led all running backs with 65 targets and an 11.2% target share. The 65 targets were the sixth-most among running backs last season. He averaged 4.1 targets per game. It wouldn’t surprise me if he sees an uptick in targets, especially since Burrow had a checkdown rate of 8.9% last season, the fourth-highest.
