The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense emerged as one of the best in the NFL in 2024, but replicating that production in 2025 could prove to be quite the challenge.
While quarterback Baker Mayfield is back — along with running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, receivers Mike Evans and (an injured) Chris Godwin and tight end Cade Otton — the architect of the system is gone. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen left to become the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, leading the Buccaneers to promote passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard.
Under Coen’s leadership, Tampa Bay’s offense ranked third in total yards and fourth in total points. That played a major part in the Buccaneers’ games going 12-5 to the over in their regular season contests, on top of their 5-3 record against the spread versus playoff teams.
Buccaneers Win Total
Tampa Bay was expected to take a step back in 2024 with a preseason win total of 7.5, only to finish 10-7. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Buccaneers’ win total pegged at 9.5 heading into 2025, all while their preseason playoff odds have gone from +145 to -175 year-over-year. After all, only the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills boast longer postseason streaks than Tampa Bay’s.
There is a public lean towards the Bucs posting double-digit wins again, with 73% of the bets taking the over on 9.5. At the same time, though, 75% of the handle is on the under, so the sharp play isn’t nearly as friendly to Tampa Bay.
Buccaneers To Make The Playoffs accounts for the 15th-highest handle across the NFL, putting them right in the middle of the pack.
Baker Mayfield Futures Splits
Mayfield has gone through quite a few ups and downs in his career, fluctuating between borderline bust and Pro Bowler.
Coen’s offense opened the door for Mayfield to finish 11th in MVP and Offensive Player of the Year voting in 2024. He racked up 4,500 passing yards, 41 passing TDs and a 106.8 passer rating on 71.4% completion. With future Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales running the offense in 2023, Mayfield posted 4,044 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns and a 94.6 passer rating on 64.3% completion.
Across his time with the Browns, Panthers and Rams, however, Mayfield averaged 3,258 yards, 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions per year. He boasted a 86.5 passer rating during that stretch while completing just 61.4% of his passes.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the 30-year-old’s Regular Season Passing Yards line set at 3,800.5 and his Regular Season Passing TDs line set at 29.5 in 2025. The over on Mayfield’s yards is drawing 89% of the handle on 95% of the bets, while the over on his touchdowns accounts for just 68% of the handle on 86% of the bets.
That sharp lean away from Mayfield cracking 30 passing touchdowns is notable, but it is also worth noting that he ranks second in handle among all NFL quarterbacks in Most Regular Season Passing Touchdowns at +950. Those are also the second-shortest odds in the league, trailing only Joe Burrow (+550).
Other Notable Player Prop Splits
While the Buccaneers will be down Godwin to start the season, rookie Emeka Egbuka is primed to step into his shoes in the slot. That means that Evans, Irving, Otton and White should be able to fill the same roles they have in the past, barring any major changes to the offense by Grizzard. The first-time OC learned under Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, so he could mix in some of that offensive philosophy moving forward.
Here is where the prop lines currently stand for Evans and Irving, as well as where the splits are leaning at the moment:
- Evans’ Regular Season Receiving Yards prop is set at 950.5. The over has seen 91% of the handle on 90% of the bets.
- Evans’ Regular Season Receiving TDs prop is set at 7.5. The over has seen 98% of the handle on 96% of the bets.
- Irving’s Regular Season Rushing Yards prop is set at 1,000.5. The under has seen 57% of the handle on 4% of the bets.
- Irving’s Regular Season Rushing TDs prop is set at 7.5. The over has seen 89% of the handle on 99% of the bets.
Evans ranks second in handle for 1,000+ Regular Season Receiving Yards, while Irving accounts for the third-largest handle on 1,250+ Regular Season Rushing Yards.
Betting Trends From 2024 to Consider
Here is a quick breakdown of how the Bucs’ biggest faces performed game-to-game last season. (Note: Some of the records below include postseason play.):
- Baker Mayfield
- Passing Yards: 10-8 to the over
- Pass Attempts: 10-8 to the under
- Completions: 10-8 to the over
- Rushing Yards: 11-7 to the over
- Mike Evans
- Receiving Yards: 8-7 to the under
- Receptions: 9-6 to the over
- Bucky Irving
- Rushing Yards: 14-4 to the over
- Rush Attempts: 7-6 to the under
- Receiving Yards: 10-7 to the over
- Receptions: 10-5 to the over
- Chris Godwin
- Receiving Yards: 4-3 to the over
- Receptions: 6-1 to the over
- Cade Otton
- Receiving Yards: 8-7 to the under
- Receptions: 10-5 to the under
Use the data you find in this series to place your NFL bets on DraftKings Sportsbook before the season begins.
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