This is the second game of a four-game series in New York between the Yankees and visiting Boston Red Sox.
Brayan Bello is scheduled to pitch for Boston, while Max Fried is slated to start for New York.
Red Sox at Yankees prediction, preview
Brayan Bello is posting a 3.23 ERA through 128 innings this season after being 4.20 or higher in each of the three prior seasons. He’s breaking out! Not so fast. The FIP is up at 4.31, while the strand rate is elevated at 78.6%, and the BABIP is at .274. Bello is still averaging 95.1 mph on the fastball, but the strikeout rate is only 18%, while the swinging strike rate is 8.7%. Bello does have a 49.7% ground ball rate with a 6.7% barrel rate, resulting in only 14 home runs allowed.
Lefties have been much more effective against Bello, as the K-BB% is only 6.8%, while the FIP is 4.69. Most of the numbers are similar both at home and on the road, but the HR/9 is 1.8 on the road compared to 0.61 at home.
Bello has allowed more than three earned runs twice in 21 starts. He’s gone at least six innings 13 times. He faced the Yankees back in June at home, going seven innings, walking three, and striking out eight without allowing one earned run on three hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees have struck out at the sixth-highest rate, while having the best ISO. Their wOBA is second-best in MLB.
Max Fried has been a bastion of consistency, producing similar numbers for six straight seasons — 8 K/9, 2 BB/9, sub-1 HR/9, 3 ERA/FIP. It’s quite remarkable, especially since he’s changed teams and leagues. This season, the fastball has ticked up to 95.7 mph from the 94 mph range, he continues to limit hard contact and has a ground ball rate of 58.8%.
Fried has been much better against lefties, but the 2 HR/9 has produced a 4.78 FIP, compared to 0.40, and 2.8, respectively, against righties. Fried has been site neutral.
Fried has allowed more than three earned runs in six of 25 starts. Three of those have come in the most recent outings. He’s allowed four, four, and seven earned runs to the Rangers, Astros, and Cardinals. Fried faced Boston back in mid-June, going seven innings, walking two, striking out nine, and allowing two earned runs on six hits.
The Red Sox have struck out at the 14th-highest rate against left-handed pitching while ranking ninth in ISO. Their wOBA ranks fourth, as well.
As for the bullpens, Boston has the sixth-lowest FIP, while New York has the 19th-lowest.
Red Sox at Yankees pick, best bet
Fried hasn’t been great recently, and I expect him to give up a few runs, but I don’t think he gets shelled. On the flip side, I do worry about Bello in Yankee Stadium, especially with his troubles against lefties.
