In reality, there’s just not that much juice for this game.
The Cardinals are technically looking to finish off a sweep and get back to the .500 mark, but the team sold off parts at the deadline and is well back of the Mets and the Reds in the battle for the final NL Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ magic pixie dust has faded away and the club is suddenly only 2-9 in its last 11 contests. That run of poor play has coincided with an injury to Kyle Stowers (oblique), who had been carrying the lineup.
Still, there’s bets to be made here. Let’s preview this National League matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs. Marlins prediction, preview
As always, this is a revenge game for Sandy Alcantara, who made eight appearances with the Cardinals before being traded to the Marlins back before the 2018 season. It’s been an up and down campaign for the former Cy Young Award winner; up because he’s healthy for the first time in a couple years, down because he’s generally been terrible. To wit, Alcantara owns a 6.31 ERA across 24 starts and 127.0 innings of work. However, it is worth mentioning the RHP’s 57.3% strand rate — easily the lowest mark among all qualified arms in the majors. He’s been a little unlucky. There’s no doubting that. Those looking for a silver lining will also note that Alcantara is directly on the heels of one of his best outings of 2025, holding the Red Sox to a single earned run over six frames at Fenway Park. That performance was even more impressive when you remember how much Alcantara has struggled away from LoanDepot Park, as the veteran sports an 8.03 ERA on the road.
A scuffling St. Louis lineup should also give Alcantara backers a reason to be optimistic on Wednesday. The Cardinals have had issues scoring runs in August with the likes of Nolan Arenado (shoulder), Brendan Donovan (groin) and Victor Scott II (ankle) all on the IL. In the month, St. Louis ranks dead-last in MLB in ISO (.115), while also sitting 24th in wOBA (.297) and 23rd in wRC+ (90). Alcantara actually possesses a 3.90 FIP when pitching in Miami in 2025. Is it possible we see a second consecutive great outing from the 29-year-old?
Andre Pallante would also appreciate a solid start on Wednesday, yet I’m not sure that’s in the cards — pun intended. Pallante has been horrendous over the past six weeks, pitching to a 7.60 ERA in his last seven appearances with an ugly 1.66 WHIP. Pallante’s extreme ground ball tendencies have allowed him to limit opponent home runs for a majority of 2025, but the RHP remains a very difficult archetype of pitcher to trust. Coming into today’s action, Pallante’s 15.9% strikeout rate ranks in only the ninth percentile of the league. You’re simply leaving a lot up to chance and luck when allowing that much opponent contact.
Cardinals vs. Marlins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Marlins ML (-126)
Alcantara has been much better in Miami and the Cardinals haven’t hit for power in three weeks.
Strong Lean: Jakob Marsee 2+ Total Bases (+130)
It’s a small sample, but Marsee has a .559 expected wOBA on batted ball events with the Marlins. The rookie is red-hot at the moment.
