This is the final game of a five-game series in Chicago between the Cubs and visiting Milwaukee Brewers.
Quinn Priester is scheduled to pitch for Milwaukee while Shota Imanaga is slated to start for Chicago.
Brewers at Cubs prediction, preview
Quinn Priester has a 3.48 ERA but the FIP is at 4.33. Many of the underlying numbers are meh. The swinging strike rate is at 10%, though, the barrel rate is 7.3% and the ground ball rate is at 58%. That said, the HR/FB rate is 16.8% and Priester has allowed 17 homers in 124 innings. The K-BB% of 11.7% doesn’t inspire much confidence.
11 of the 17 home runs have come off the bat of righties. Outside of the home runs, the numbers are similar against both lefties and righties. Priester has been site neutral.
Priester has allowed more than three earned runs four times. He allowed six earned runs to the Mets at home in 4.1 innings two starts ago. He has faced Chicago twice this season. Back in May at home, Priester went 4.1 innings, walked four, struck out four and allowed seven earned runs on six hits. Four starts ago at home, he went 5.2 innings, walked two, struck out three and allowed two earned runs on eight hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cubs have struck out at the 26th-highest rate while having the sixth-best ISO. Their wOBA is eighth-best in MLB.
Shota Imanaga has a 3.06 ERA, but he’s been very fortunate. The BABIP is only .218 while the strand rate is 85.4%. As a result, the FIP is much higher at 4.32. Imanaga only averages 90.9 mph on the fastball, but the swinging strike rate is 11.8% while the chase rate is 32.7%. That’s primarily due to the splitter and slider, which have positive run values of 3.2 and 5.8, respectively. The walk rate is pristine at 4.7% while the strikeout rate is 21.1%. The barrel rate, though, is 10.4% while the hard hit rate is 40.3%.
16 of the 18 home runs allowed have come off the bat of righties. The FIP is 3.2 against lefties and 4.69 against righties. Imanaga has been better on the road, as the K-BB% is slightly higher while the FIP is lower.
Imanaga has allowed more than three earned runs in three of 18 starts. He’s gone at least six innings eight times. He has faced Milwaukee twice this season. During a May outing in Milwaukee, Imanaga went 5.2 innings, walked one, struck out four and allowed two earned runs on four hits. Four starts ago in Milwaukee again, he went five innings, did not walk a batter, struck out eight and allowed three earned runs on five hits.
The Brewers have struck out at the 27th-highest rate against left-handed pitching while ranking 19th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks eighth as well.
As for the bullpens, Milwaukee has the seventh-lowest FIP, while Chicago has the 16th-lowest.
Brewers at Cubs pick, best bet
This game has the lowest total on the slate at 7. Both pitchers have been better than the advanced stats, but both pitchers are prone to the occassional blowup. I have slightly more faith in Imanaga than Priester in this one and like Seiya Suzuki to go yard.
