The Colorado Rockies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of today’s 14-game MLB slate. Colorado took the opening game of the series with a 4-3 win, but Los Angeles bounced back with an 11-4 victory yesterday. Today will mark the third game of a four-game series.
Looking at tonight’s odds, the Dodgers enter as convincing -329 favorites on the moneyline and hold -226 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rockies hold +256 odds of getting the outright victory with the run total set at 11.5.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Rockies vs. Dodgers matchup.
Dodgers at Rockies prediction
The Rockies have brought up the rear of the MLB standings all season and hold the worst record in the league at 36-90. Their -333 run differential is more than double the next-worst rate, which is held by the Washington Nationals at -158. As a team, they rank 23rd in batting average, 25th in OPS, 20th in slugging percentage, 23rd in hits, 21st in home runs and 29th in total runs. Hunter Goodman leads the team with 113 hits, 25 home runs, 69 RBIs and a 2.6 WAR. Jordan Beck adds 112 hits with 14 home runs and 44 RBIs. Mickey Moniak is second on the team with 18 home runs along with 49 RBIs.
Tanner Gordon will get the start for the Rockies tonight. This will mark just the 17th start of his MLB career and his ninth this season with the Rockies. Across his first eight starts, Gordon is posting a 7.98 ERA with 34 earned runs allowed and 28 strikeouts tallied across his first 38.1 innings pitched. The 27-year-old has only had one scoreless start this season and has given up 20 earned runs across his past three appearances. Colorado’s bullpen is also posting the second-worst collective ERA at 5.36 and has given up 72 home runs this season, also the second-worst mark.
The Dodgers enter with much loftier expectations for the season and hold a 72-54 record overall. Their offense has been a calling card with their 654 total runs leading the entire MLB. Los Angeles ranks fourth in batting average, second in OPS, second in slugging percentage, sixth in hits and second in home runs. Shohei Ohtani headlines the production and has climbed to a -8000 favorite for NL MVP on DraftKings Sportsbook. He leads the Dodgers with 136 hits and leads the entire National League with 119 runs, 43 home runs, a .621 slugging percentage and 1.014 OPS. Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages each add 20 home runs and have combined for 144 RBIs. Freddie Freeman is second on the team in hits with 128 along with 15 home runs and 68 RBIs, while Mookie Betts also has 109 hits this year.
Ohtani will be on the mound tonight and is making his 10th start of the season. Los Angeles has been careful with his usage to this point. But he is coming off a season-high 4.1 innings pitched in his previous start and threw 4.0 innings in the start before that. The five-time All-Star is posting a 3.47 ERA with 21 hits, nine earned runs allowed and 32 strikeouts tallied across his opening 23.1 innings pitched. The Dodgers’ bullpen is producing the 21st-worst ERA collectively at 4.17 on the season and is tied for the third-most home runs allowed.
Rockies vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
The 4-3 loss to open the series was all the Dodgers needed as a wake-up call. They laid it on thick yesterday with 11 runs tallied. This was the 12th time this season they have scored 10+ runs in a game.
Expect more of the same tonight as Los Angeles faces one of its friendlier pitching matchups it has seen all season. Tanner Gordon’s track record has not been strong, and he has been in especially bad form of late. He has struggled with lineups far less fearsome than the Dodgers and will be put to the test tonight. Gordon has only faced Alex Call and Michael Conforto on this Los Angeles roster and could be in for a rude awakening against some of the league’s top sluggers.
With the odds (rightfully) favoring the Dodgers by a significant margin, my favorite way to bet this is by backing Los Angeles’ team total at over 7.5. The Dodgers are averaging 5.19 runs per game overall on the season, but Gordon gave up 10 earned runs himself against the Diamondbacks just two games ago. Colorado’s bullpen is equally concerning, and it should not be any source of concern if the Rockies’ starter is chased from the game early. Playing at the most hitter-friendly ballpark, with the elevation and field dimensions in mind, and a favorable pitching matchup, count on the Dodgers to be ready to put up some crooked numbers.
