When LA Galaxy edged out New York Red Bulls, 2-1, to win the 2024 MLS Cup, it seemed like it’d be a stepping stone for the league’s most storied franchise to return to its former glory. But the 2025 campaign has been a disaster for the Galaxy so far, as they’ve picked up just three wins from 26 matches and sit dead last in the Western Conference.
LA could still salvage its season by getting its hands on some silverware, though; after picking up two wins and a penalty shootout loss, the Galaxy finished third in the MLS standings for the Leagues Cup and will have an opportunity to move on to the semifinals when they face Pachuca at 11:45 p.m. ET tonight.
Pachuca is a +140 favorite to win in regular time and -125 to advance at DraftKings Sportsbook. LA is +170 to win in regular time and +100 to advance, with +240 odds of a penalty shootout.
LA Galaxy vs. Pachuca prediction, pick
The season started off with a disaster for the Galaxy, as they needed four matches to even pick up a point and 17 to nab their first win, and no player has even registered more than five goals, one of just three teams in the league with that distinct dishonor. The team’s best player has been 36-year-old Marco Reus, the only player to reach double-digit goal contributions, but even he has put up less impressive per-minute production than he did in the 2023-24 Bundesliga, a much more competitive division. Still, 21-year-old Brazilian Matheus Nascimento and Ghanaian forward Joseph Paintsil have scored three goals apiece in the Leagues Cup, and Paintsil’s 11 shots on target are four more than any other player.
Los Tuzos, meanwhile, have won four of their five Liga MX matches and sit top of the table, thanks in part to a rock-solid defense that has conceded just four goals, two fewer than any other team but América. They haven’t missed a beat after selling one of the country’s most promising defenders, 22-year-old Bryan González, to Chivas during the transfer window. From top to bottom, Pachuca is stacked with talent, from 24-year-old Alonso Aceves — who has two goal contributions already — to new addition Gastón Togni, who’s scored a pair of goals in 191 total minutes. 19-year-old midfielder Elias Montiel netted against Real Madrid at the Club World Cup and is tied for the team lead with three goal contributions in the domestic league’s early going.
If there’s any opportunity in attack for LA, it’ll have to go through the center, because neither of Los Tuzos’ center-back pairing, Eduardo Gabriel and Sergio Barreto, ranks very highly by defensive metrics. The Galaxy’s wingers, Diego Fagúndez and Gabriel Chaves, might have a tough time, given that Aceves ranks in the 93rd percentile in tackles per 90 minutes and Carlos Sánchez in the 99th percentile in interceptions. The strategy will be the opposite for Pachuca, since left-back John Nelson is the comparative weak link in LA’s back line, ranking below the median in tackles and interceptions per 90 minutes. Once a Los Tuzos player gets it past either Nelson or Maya Yoshida — another poor tackler in the Galaxy defense — goalkeeper Novak Mićović, who’s saved just 57.4% of the shots on target he’s faced this season, should be an easy task.
Ultimately, though Pachuca didn’t fare so well in its last taste of international competition, LA is not Real Madrid, RB Salzburg, or Al-Hilal. Galaxy have had a nice run through the Leagues Cup, but at the end of the day, it’s a battle between America’s worst and Mexico’s best, and despite the current rough form of Mexican football overall, the southerly side is clearly a better team. Home field advantage won’t matter — LA is just 3-2-7 at Dignity Health Sports Park — and with some three million Mexicans in the Los Angeles metro area, it’s likely that Los Tuzos will have a large contingent of fans as well. I like the Mexican side to prevail by multiple goals, especially at nearly four-to-one odds.
